Gordon D’Arcy: Farrell gambling on Murray’s ability to reproduce his best

I’ve never been inclined to join the chorus. However, Conor Murray is not exuding confidence at the moment and this was reflected in the Ireland performance against Scotland.

These days I'm fortunate enough to watch Six Nations matches from the ITV commentary perch. Halfway line just above the west lower stand. It's a bird's eye view of all the touchline activity, we have the referee's audio and multiple screens for replays, but the best way to understand any game is to track the scrumhalf.

Murray’s stalling at rucks is similar to how he plays for Munster. They don’t play at a fast pace, which is fine, unlike Leinster and Ulster.

The pertinent question is which way do Ireland want to play?

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I believe it needs to be at a quicker pace. I also feel Andy Farrell’s selection of the tried and trusted will be judged harshly if Wales win in Dublin. The championship is on the line, Ireland simply have to win all their home matches, so Farrell has clearly edged towards the players he knows best.

It’s a pity because John Cooney and Max Deegan are the way forward right now.

The tempo Ireland, I presume, want to be playing at is lacking because interplay between scrumhalf and forwards is not functioning properly

Great scrumhalves – and Murray’s body of work until the injury in 2018 guarantees his place among them – dictate the tempo of any match. They are the main stakeholder in linking pack to backs.

Take a look at Antoine Dupont against England. The little Toulouse man is forcing French ball carriers to sprint onto ball. He does this by refusing to give his forwards standing start possession. He puts the ball out in front of them - and both parties understand the timing and spacial awareness required.

In particular, Dupont kept putting it on a plate for number eight Gregory Alldritt.

Tomos Williams’ performance against Italy was also based around quickening up the pace. His selection proves that Wales coach Wayne Pivac has a different policy to Farrell. Williams was the form choice despite Rhys Webb coming home from Toulon.

Now Tomos has the propensity to snipe – much like Cooney– get isolated and turned over, but it also makes him a constant threat. When a scrumhalf is constantly putting ball in front of his big forwards the defence tend to forget about him for a split second.

Italy were desperate – really poor it has to be said although their under-20s did win (tip of the cap to Steve Aboud) – but Dan Biggar profited at outhalf from the tempo Williams generated.

That, to my mind, was the reason why a very aggressive Scotland team stayed in Saturday’s game. Ireland’s tempo was shy of what Ali Price was playing at in the opening 15 minutes but the Scots couldn’t execute on their 10 visits to the Ireland 22.

Wales will come away with more points if given similar access.

Previous form

Ben Youngs is another scrumhalf who appears to be trading off previous form. Willi Heinz brought much-needed pace to England’s attack when replacing Youngs in Paris. And until Heinz was smashed so hard by Dupont that he lost possession, in the game’s decisive moment, he was making a strong case to start this weekend at Murrayfield.

Far too often Youngs and Murray are passing to static forwards who are easy targets behind the gainline. The scrumhalf cannot shoulder total responsibility as the receiver must time his run correctly.

It becomes about learning what your scrumhalf will do. I could go back to Dupont all day; the big French players are under no illusions – the ball will be out in front. On the rare occasions that Dupont goes missing, it is on them to catch up, clear the ruck and reward the break down field.

The way Johnny Sexton managed Saturday’s game papers over many areas of concerns. He was right afterwards, so was Farrell, in that you win your opening Six Nations match any way you can. The pressure on their shoulders – new captain, new coach – made their simplified approach understandable.

That will not work against Wales. Ireland need Murray to flick the switch. Remember his magnificence in Soldier Field or superb display for the Lions in Wellington? That’s what Farrell, to my mind, is expecting from the man he coached on the Lions tour and to the 2018 Grand Slam.

I just – like so many others paying attention – want to see the undeniable class of Cooney and Deegan rewarded from the start

The tempo Ireland, I presume, want to be playing at is lacking because interplay between scrumhalf and forwards is not functioning properly.

Now, like I said, it is not all on Murray. The connection from scrumhalf to, say, CJ Stander, starts when Murray stoops to pass.

That’s when his Munster teammate must start his run up to make use of a clear advantage; the opposition are standing still. The offside law forces defenders to be static while Stander has free metres to generate momentum.

I pick out the man of the match against Scotland because Caelan Doris’ concussion puts Stander back into the eight jersey this weekend. What we witnessed on the weekend was one of the best ever CJ Stander performances. Bristling with desire, real power over the ball and 27 metres gained from 14 carries. One run was in open field (that’s where most of the metres came from).

The only comparative Irish carrier was Bundee Aki who went 40 metres from 12 runs as both men proved once again how valuable the old three-year residency law was for Irish rugby.

Hard yards

Ireland need the pair of them because that’s how they play. Eke out hard yards and opportunity is supposed to arise elsewhere. The theory is sound and guarantees competitiveness in every game but Ireland have leaned too heavily on this approach. It was badly exposed in Japan and will not win a Six Nations title in 2020.

If fresh elements are not added to the Irish attack, Wales will cover the seven point advantage a home team tends to have. Garry Ringrose feels like a significant loss even considering Robbie Henshaw’s return to the line-up. I only hope Jordan Larmour doesn’t go into himself after putting that foot in touch when racing out of his 22. He needs to be encouraged to keep attacking.

Farrell made a positive statement by picking Doris, a true number eight, and Larmour at fullback but the loss of Doris and crucially Ringrose sees Ireland revert to a selection that stumbled at every major hurdle in the past 12 months (Scotland are not a major hurdle).

Will Addison would have brought some much needed creativity in midfield but he’s injured again.

Deegan needed to come into this backrow, with Stander doing what he does best at blindside, so there is a footballer at number eight.

It feels like a missed opportunity.

Same goes for Murray over Cooney. When Cooney arrived last weekend his role was all about game management. He did this to a high level of competency, looking like he has all season; the form scrumhalf in the country.

I am not suggesting Ireland should discard Murray or Peter O’Mahony. Far from it. Both would be needed off the bench to beat Wales. I just – like so many others paying attention – want to see the undeniable class of Cooney and Deegan rewarded from the start. Both offer traits that we are not currently seeing from Murray and O’Mahony.

Again, I point you in the direction of Dupont’s rapid thought process in Paris. Murray passed 74 four times and went 20 metres off four runs. Dupont passed 44 times and went 50 metres off 10 probes.

You can manipulate statistics to your favour but trust your eyes – that’s all I am doing – and witness the pace of France in victory over England. Now, go back and see Ireland’s honest to goodness defeat of Scotland. They were forced to defend for their lives down the home straight.

Clever decoy

More than ever Ireland are reliant on Sexton. That’s fine, he’s the captain and best player but the lack of progress is what worries me. His try against Scotland was a clever decoy play where quick hands from Cian Healy distracted a Scottish defence that expected Ireland to keep coming around the corner. It had Mike Catt written all over it.

But Vincent Rattez’s early try against England was created by Bernard le Roux coming at pace onto Dupont’s pass before the scrumhalf switched the attack to Romain Ntamack, in motion, before an inside pass by the outhalf allowed Rattez – miles from his wing – to squeeze past Youngs.

France’s next score was off a contested box kick, right out of the Ireland playbook, but the third try by Charles Ollivon showcased Dupont’s ability to think and move quicker than anyone else.

I’ll return to my perch in the Aviva Stadium this weekend. I hope to see the Irish scrumhalf dictating the tempo, controlling how a team attacks and gifting his outhalf plenty of space.

Farrell, understandably, believes Murray can flick that switch. If he lights up the Aviva, as we know he can but have not seen in some time, Ireland should win and the decision is justified. Alternatively, the player’s confidence could plummet.

Hopefully I am wrong, but it seems like the mental scars of 2019 are still healing. Besides one player retiring and another put out to pasture, this is the team that did not perform last year.

Selection seems reactionary rather than justified.