Gordon D'Arcy: Schmidt’s vision another bonus for Ireland

A try isn't worth five points anymore. I would be very surprised if Joe Schmidt or any Six Nations coach was caught unawares by the incoming bonus point system.

It’s just a theory, albeit guided by overwhelming evidence and logic, but Joe, I believe, saw this coming and acted accordingly.

The Schmidt approach with Ireland has become primarily possession based. Just look how they attacked in November, even go back to the June tour of South Africa.

The northern hemisphere’s low risk, defence orientated attitude has been altered, with Ireland using the past six months to prepare for next year’s championship.

Some historic victories gained along the way can only enhance their belief in the evolved attacking attitude.

Now Schmidt’s Ireland, not unlike his Leinster and Clermont teams, held attacking ideals at their core but why would Ireland hunt down tries in previous Six Nations when they all that mattered was winning?

Tries matter now, more than the risk of losing, as Ireland enter the Six Nations comfortably playing a brand of rugby that targets the bonus point with or without a victory.

The proof: five tries against New Zealand in Chicago, eight against Canada and three against Australia (one with a makeshift backline).

To score four tries a team needs 65 to 70 per cent of possession.

Ireland coveted the ball in November and I believe it was the development of a template for how they will move forward.

This loop is continuous; if possession can be converted into tries, precise execution becomes essential. One block on top of the other.

The overwhelming factor in enacting such change is trust by the individual in the collective.

We are not alone in such progress.

The re-styled Six Nations will come down to a philosophical stand-off between Schmidt's possession based approach and England's pressure game under Eddie Jones.

Schmidt and Jones, one or the other, are the exact type of attack-minded coach the British and Irish Lions will need next June.

Of course neither of them will be there, nor will Gregor Townsend. Joe will be in Japan and Eddie in Argentina.

Instead, one must test the other’s philosophy in Dublin on March 18th.

A Grand Slam could be on the line, I’m sure the championship will.

England might even be seeking to break New Zealand’s 18 match winning record.

Why would Schmidt or Jones go on the Lions tour as an assistant to Warren Gatland? They are too busy, for one. Both coaches have already overcome supposedly unbeatable All Black sides; Joe in Chicago and Eddie’s Australia in the 2003 World Cup semi-final.

They already know they can do it, so why enhance another head coach’s reputation?

They have enough to be doing, and anyway, Schmidt’s game plan in both New Zealand games offers the Lions a winning template: hold the majority of possession in the right areas of the field (utilising an unbreakable set piece) and attack with precision.

Also, these men are national head coaches. How do you suddenly switch to an assistant mentality?

Same goes for Townsend as he takes over Scotland in June.

The only benefit of touring as an assistant coach is it puts you in line to become Lions head coach in 2021. If successful. Then again, if you are the best coach in the northern hemisphere, proved by capturing the William Webb Ellis, the Lions will come calling.

So, while the Lions coaching party is announced today more pressing matters fill the minds of Schmidt and Jones.

For me, the penny dropped when the bonus point for tries scored in the Six Nations was announced last week. With the flash of a pen the opening weekend becomes extremely interesting. Ireland go to Murrayfield, same stadium where they scored the four tries needed to win the 2015 title.

Same attitude can be carried to Rome seven days later.

That would leave them sitting on 10 points after two games, which immediately raises the stakes for Wales, France and England. That automatically improves the tournament on all levels.

Schmidt, I suspect, wanted his players to be comfortably switched into this mindset before February. The best form of preparation being practice, they have already approached at least four games with a bonus point mentality.

As soon as John Feehan spoke last week, rugby in the northern hemisphere was substantially altered. The Six Nations is now a try focused competition like the Rugby Championship. So the playing field has been leveled somewhat.

November was proof of that. Certainly Ireland’s approach was.

The game has suddenly become a risk (reward) orientated sport.

What did Ireland do the first time they got a penalty near the All Blacks line in Chicago? Lineout, drive, try. What did Ireland do the first time they got a penalty near the Australian line in Dublin?

Lineout, dummy drive (for variation) and launched Garry Ringrose at a potential chink in the Wallabies armour.

Intent is everything now. The knowledge, I presume anyway, that bonus points were coming to the Six Nations instantly closed the gap between the northern and southern hemisphere.

England and Ireland are the frontrunners now. There’s plenty of rugby in between but March 18th will be a huge match, regardless of results beforehand.

England's traditionally successful approach has always stemmed from a monstrous pack of forwards. Jones embraced that, but ensured that they pave the way for the creation of three-on-two situations, where they reap the benefits through Jonathan Joseph and a cohort of industrious, sprinter paced wingers and Mike Brown. All directed by two playmakers in Owen Farrell and George Ford.

This comes back to humongous ball carriers when that heavy pressure is needed. Such men, like the Vunipolas and Nathan Hughes, sap a defence of its energy and creates space when the ball spins wide.

Ireland's methods in November were possession based with six, seven, even up to double digit phase plays until the Conor Murray gap opens up. Or whoever else. It is about being smart while holding onto the ball, showing the confidence to keep probing until opportunities present themselves and then having the composure to capitalise.

That said, I have no doubt there will be elements of an old fashioned Ireland versus England meeting, just the approach will have radically changed.

Ireland’s decision making - besides that early period against New Zealand in Dublin when the three points on offer were taken - proves as much.

In the past week I’m sure Joe pored over the November returns from going for tries instead of kicking penalties, analysing how the team can maximise each incursion into the opposition 22; figuring out how these performances can be dramatically improved in February.

The new approach is also about Rory Best and the other five leaders handling the on-field responsibility by sacrificing three points, kicking to the corner and hunting down tries.

Because that is what the modern game demands if Ireland are to be successful.

A try isn’t worth five points anymore. It is a quarter of a bonus point.

France have not been idle under Guy Noves, showing evidence of a revival, a return to their counter attacking roots if you kick to their back field.

They threatened to shred the All Blacks defence three times in the opening eight minutes in Paris. Noves seems to have realised the game must return to what made the French wonderful to watch if his reign is to prove successful.

This all makes for a compelling February and March.

Scotland have cottoned on as well and go into every game seeking tries.

Wales have the biggest adjustment to make. Their direct approach using massive ball carrying backs has won them Six Nations titles under Warren Gatland. Jamie Roberts, George North et al also had a lot to do with the Lions winning the 2013 series in Australia.

But the defence orientated approach, the ‘just win by a score mentality,’ has been punctuated by a need to breach the seven point margin if the opposition is to be taken out of championship contention.

The old methods, which helped Ireland reach this juncture, still retain a valuable role. The choke tackle, for one, isn’t going anywhere. It remains Ireland’s chief means of relieving pressure with a Murray box kick, inviting the opposition to attack and then dispossessing them further up the field.

Australia ran into this trap a few times.

But the game, as a spectacle, will improve dramatically now attack supersedes defence. November showed us this through the eyes of Schmidt, Jones and Noves.

Maybe Joe predicted this. Or maybe he saw how the game was evolving, using the three test series in South Africa as a means to hone Ireland’s ball in hand approach before revealing the progress in November.

Either way, the game has changed for the better, and Irish rugby at all levels is currently ahead of the curve.

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