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Leinster are dreaming of a final, but 2025 should remind them not to dream too hard

Home advantage presents Leo Cullen’s men with a big opportunity but Toulon will also fancy their chances in semi-final

Fans cheer on the teams during last Sunday's Champions Cup quarter-final between Bordeaux-Begles and Toulouse at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho
Fans cheer on the teams during last Sunday's Champions Cup quarter-final between Bordeaux-Begles and Toulouse at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho

The cream always rises to the top or, as that epic sporting weekend underlined, proven form over course and distance counts, be it Aintree, Augusta, the Aviva Stadium or most other places.

The Champions Cup quarter-final weekend delivered in spades, as it invariably somehow seems to do. The net result is that the semi-final line-up features former winners, including reigning champions Bordeaux Bègles, as well as the reigning URC and Premiership champions.

Bath edging out Northampton 43-41 after twice trailing by 21 points in the first-half on Friday night at the Rec set a high bar. It was also a little tough on Henry Pollock and the Saints, given the harsh yellow card against him by the otherwise excellent Andrew Brace in a pivotal moment near the end. But credit where it’s due. It also underlined how Johann van Graan continues to do an outstanding job.

Toulon’s gritty 21-18 win against Glasgow was earned through two first-half finishes by speedster Gael Drean, a brilliant individualistic try by their Italian centre Juan Ignacio Brex and by dint of keeping the home side scoreless in the final quarter – no mean achievement given the high-flying Scots were unbeaten on their 4G pitch this season.

At a stroke, Leinster had the additional carrot of a home semi-final when they subsequently hosted Sale Sharks. Ultimately, their 43-13 win was, not surprisingly, the most lopsided of the quarter-finals. While it reflected their season in that it was a slow burner, as Declan Kidney was wont to say, it’s funny how the better side often doesn’t get its reward until the second-half.

An injury-weakened Sale brought plenty of physicality, but having to make 186 tackles compared to just 84 by Leinster took its toll. There have been real signs of Leinster’s attack clicking in the last couple of knockout games, as they did in the corresponding two games last season when scoring 18 tries and beating Harlequins and Glasgow without conceding a point.

Edinburgh and Sale have been more obdurate. They could hardly fail to be. And neither Leinster’s attack nor defence has been perfect. But they’ve made 33 clean line breaks in the last two games, scoring 13 tries and 92 points, while still having real scope for further improvement.

Of course, we all remember what happened next this time a year ago, but Leinster will surely have learned plenty from that somewhat self-inflicted loss to Northampton, not least in picking their best team this time! A year on, it’s still hard not to think that the selection against Northampton was both indicative of, and contributed to, a slightly complacent or lackadaisical attitude.

Leinster's Dan Sheehan makes a break leading to Jamie Osborne's final try against Sale Sharks in Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Photograph: Dan Clohessy/Inpho
Leinster's Dan Sheehan makes a break leading to Jamie Osborne's final try against Sale Sharks in Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Photograph: Dan Clohessy/Inpho

It was interesting to hear Dan Sheehan admit after Saturday’s win that the players had “let things slide” this season before pulling their focus together. Fair play to him. This also adds to the feeling that, no less than their supporters, Leinster’s players had also been suffering mentally from a post-Northampton hangover until quite recently. This would only have been compounded by the Lions, November window and the Six Nations.

Although Toulon were full value for their win over Glasgow, having a fifth home semi-final in a row has to be a positive. It offers an opportunity to put last season’s semi-final defeat to rights which would then, most likely, set up the final that Leinster at full throttle would have secured 12 months ago against Bordeaux.

Their compelling 30-15 home win over six-time champions Toulouse on Sunday was the biggest statement victory by any side in this season’s competition. The winners of that heavyweight Gallic affair were always going to assume favouritism and Bordeaux Bègles are now the 4/6 favourites to retain their crown.

Leinster have yet to fully find their mojo heading into a Champions Cup semi-final – when will it all click?

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They would be even warmer favourites in a May 24th final less than four hours down the road in Bilbao. If it pans out that way for them, the Top 14’s hold on the trophy will be extended to a sixth season. As has usually been the case in the recent past, Leinster stand as the main obstacle to French dominance. It is a level of dominance by one country or league that is without precedent in the competition’s history.

The 18,839 attendance for Leinster’s quarter-final may have left the Aviva Stadium less than half-full, but it was a decent turnout for a couple of reasons. The fixture only came into being six days previously, while both the round of 16 and quarter-final were back-to-back amid the Easter holidays.

Juan Ignacio Brex of Toulon breaks with the ball to score their final try during the Champions Cup match quarter-final against Glasgow Warriors at Scotstoun Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: David Rogers/Getty Images
Juan Ignacio Brex of Toulon breaks with the ball to score their final try during the Champions Cup match quarter-final against Glasgow Warriors at Scotstoun Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: David Rogers/Getty Images

Those present wanted to be there, wore the blue and were fully behind their team. The prospect of French/European royalty – three-time winners Toulon – coming to town in three weeks’ time ought to generate a huge crowd.

Any side that contains the brilliant French captain Charles Ollivon, Baptiste Serin, Pumas outhalf Tomas Albornoz, Nacho Brex and Melvyn Jaminet should both draw a crowd and command respect. Heck, Paolo Garbisi struggles to make their 23 for big games.

Besides, as Leo Cullen was quick to note after Saturday’s win, home advantage came with no guarantees last season when Leinster were left devastated by that epic semi-final loss to Northampton. And as he knows from bitter personal experience, Toulon have caused Leinster plenty of grief in both his playing and early coaching days.

Leinster have never actually beaten Toulon on the field of play. Much to Toulon’s fury, Leinster were awarded their round of 16 tie five seasons ago by the Match Result Resolution Committee on the basis the French club could not fulfil the fixture due to cases of Covid in their squad.

Prior to this, Toulon’s three-in-a-row side beat Leinster in the 2013-14 quarter-finals by 24-16 and the 2014-15 semi-finals by 25-20, after extra time, and both times in Marseille. Toulon completed a back-to-back double in December 2015 by 24-9 at home and 20-16 at the Aviva in Cullen’s first season as head coach.

So, Pierre Mignoni’s side will travel to Dublin in three weeks locked and loaded. They will be confident of reaching the final.

gerry.thornley@irishtimes.com

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