From this remove, Steve Borthwick has seriously raised the stakes in advance of England’s fourth-round Six Nations game against Italy on Saturday (kick-off 4.40pm Irish). Not least, it seems, for himself.
In the fallout from Ireland’s record 42-21 win at Twickenham, some of the outraged reaction across the water was bordering on disrespectful towards Andy Farrell’s side, and Borthwick has reacted accordingly.
Making nine changes in personnel, and three more position switches, to the starting XV to face Italy, Borthwick has wielded the axe more than any English coach has done since the Five Nations became Six at the turn of the millennium.
Injuries have played a factor, England most notably without Alex Mitchell and Ollie Lawrence. Even so, Borthwick has pretty much shredded the core of his team that was central to their 12 successive wins before the 31-20 defeat to Scotland in the second round.
READ MORE
There are also some forced absentees from the autumn series, notably Immanuel Fey-Waboso, but even so, this English team is radically different from the side which beat the All Blacks 33-19 at Twickenham last November.
The spate of changes is so un-Borthwick like. Normally a “steady-as-she-goes” kind of head coach, what has happened to this “young English team” being “on a journey” and yet to reach its “potential”?
Borthwick has rolled the dice like never before, but if it’s one thing losing by a record margin in a home game against Ireland, a week after their latest loss to the Scots, it’s another thing entirely to lose to Italy.
Have Ireland changed their selection policy ahead of the clash with Wales?
For whatever the individual reasoning, Italy are probably most people’s second-favourite team in the Six Nations. Whenever the Azzurri scalp another nation it is generally well received by all bar those from the losing side, to whom it is an unmitigated disaster.
Italy have only ever beaten Ireland once in the history of the championship, 22-15 in the final round in 2013 tournament which marked the end of Declan Kidney’s tenure.
Ireland won only one game in that Six Nations, their opener in Cardiff against eventual champions Wales, so the writing was probably on the wall. It didn’t matter that Ireland were missing Paul O’Connell and a host of others, or that Johnny Sexton was due to start until being withdrawn two days prior, or that Ireland lost Keith Earls, Luke Marshall and Earls’s replacement Luke Fitzgerald in the first half, forcing Peter O’Mahony to play the remainder of the game on the wing.
Despite leading Munster to two Heineken Cups in 2006 and 2008, and Ireland to their first Grand Slam in 61 years in 2009, that defeat in Rome sealed Kidney’s fate.
Similarly, Wayne Pivac guided the Scarlets to their first trophy in 13 years when they won the 2017 Pro12. He succeeded Warren Gatland after the 2019 World Cup and led them to the Six Nations title in 2021. However, a final-round loss to Italy in 2022 – their first ever in Cardiff, which also ended a 16-match winning run against the Azzurri – was compounded by losses to Georgia and Australia during that year’s autumn series, prompting the Welsh Rugby Union to relieve Pivac of his duties that December replacing him with his predecessor Gatland.
The All Blacks news head coach, Dave Rennie, led the New Zealand under-20s to three successive Junior World Cup titles from 2008 to 2010. He took over the Chiefs in 2012 and immediately led them to two Super Rugby titles before guiding Glasgow to the 2019 Pro14 final, which they lost to Leinster.
He was appointed head coach of the Wallabies after the 2019 World Cup, but in 2022, Australia lost to Italy for the first time ever having previously beaten the Azzurri 18 times in succession. The fixture in Florence was foisted upon Rennie by the cash-strapped Rugby Australia as one of five end-of-year tour games, taking their year total to 14.
Not unreasonably, Rennie rotated his team for the third of those fixtures, the game against Italy, and debutant Ben Donaldson missed a conversion 15m in from the left touchline which could have earned them the win.
Seven days later, despite a 13-10 loss to Ireland in Dublin, it was striking how much Nic White and the Wallabies players backed Rennie.
One wonders if Rennie’s side had not suffered the ignominy of losing to Italy, would Rugby Australia have backed him? Instead, they replaced him with Eddie Jones. It looked like a flawed decision then, and that looks even more so the case now.
In contrast, New Zealand Rugby Union appointing Rennie to succeed Scott Robertson looks a smart move.
But woe betide any head coach whose team loses to Italy. And this Azzurri side is better than those which sprang any of the three aforementioned upsets. Juan Ignacio ‘Nacho’ Brex is back and reunited with Tommaso Menoncello, while the Garbisis, Paolo and Alessandro, will start together at halfback, albeit Ange Capuozzo is injured again and replaced by Lorenzo Pani.
Now that Borthwick has taken a risk with his team shake-up, England could go one of two ways. After all, in their 32 meetings, England have lost to Italy.
