Six Nations: Ireland v Wales, Aviva Stadium, Friday, 8.10pm – Live RTÉ 2 & ITV. Follow our live blog on The Irish Times
How to follow that? It’s a familiar question for any side after achieving an inspired and momentous win, especially on a grand stage against probably the most prized scalp of all. After scaling the heights, there’s usually only one direction from there.
Such is the emotional energy attached to an Irish team or individual against English opposition, this can also be difficult to reproduce, even against fellow Celts and closer neighbours.
Then there’s being underdogs. It’s a role Irish sides historically love to embrace, much to Andy Farrell’s irritation. In any event, it’s one thing being 10-point underdogs, quite another when 26-point favourites.
Have Ireland changed their selection policy ahead of the clash with Wales?
Furthermore, there’s the Twickenham factor and, eh, the Aviva factor. Suffice to say, the estimated 20-25,000 Irish supporters in southwest London inspired the team with their colour, cheering and singing. They provided a reminder of the Green Army’s impact; an impact that doesn’t always hit the heights at the Aviva Stadium.
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Ireland’s strong start in Twickenham, when scoring three cracking tries without reply in the first half-hour, undoubtedly gave their supporters plenty to cheer about, but The Fields had already echoed around Twickenham in the third minute. Players and supporters had a heightened connection from then on.
The Aviva crowd tend to be more reactive. Witness how they sprang to life in the second half of the match against Italy when coming to the realisation Ireland actually had a game on their hands. A competitive Wales might have the same effect, or alternatively, so might another strong Irish start.
It would help no end if the home support were in situ and encouraged to be engaged before kick-off, not least when Jamison Gibson-Park emerges for his 50th cap. Irish rugby really has unearthed and polished a Kiwi gem in the evergreen 34-year-old. His unremitting brilliance in Twickenham deserves to be recognised.
Whether he can reproduce such a display again will be a big ask. He seems to have bought into the Irish zeitgeist now. That was his third man-of-the-match award in a game against England, although he’s won one against Wales too.
No less than Conor Murray, he has mastered the art of box-kicking to the extent he is a danger to any passing drones. He will utilise the ploy as the game-plan demands. But give him licence to snipe and run and take quick taps and maintain a whirlwind tempo, and Gibson-Park is in his happy place.
As he suggested in his onfield, post-match TV interview, reverting to a running game with width also suits this team at Twickenham. Outside Gibson-Park, one could almost have imagined Johnny Sexton was running the plays at outhalf, so effective was Jack Crowley in a largely understated, team-enabling 80 minutes.
It helps Crowley too that Stuart McCloskey is in the form of his life outside him. It would be wonderful to see the outside backs with plenty of opportunity after Robert Baloucoune produced the best performance of his career to date.
If it’s a big night for Gibson-Park, the same is true in a different way for Tom O’Toole, Rónan Kelleher and Nick Timoney in relatively rare starts. Ditto, of course, Nathan Doak on his Test debut and the back-up frontrow.
Some of Ireland’s problems against Wales last season, when emerging grateful for a hard-earned 27-18 win without the widely anticipated bonus point, emanated from the three scrum penalties which the tricky Nicky Smith earned against Thomas Clarkson in the first half. As both are replacements here, this is an opportunity for Clarkson to exorcise a few ghosts.
Wales approached that game on 14 successive defeats and as 22-point underdogs, but had a bounce from Matt Sherratt’s first outing as interim replacement for Warren Gatland. This time they have the injection of belief from their best performance since beating Australia at the last World Cup when losing 26-23 to Scotland a fortnight ago.
Steve Tandy’s hand has been forced to some degree by injuries to Sam Costelow and Taine Plumtree. But he may well have opted for James Botham anyway given the ball-carrying he brought to their backrow off the bench against the Scots, and Ellis Mee has been recalled by choice. But Costelow imbued the Welsh team with confidence and so the challenge for Dan Edwards is to transmit that assurance.
A strong Irish start might also provoke a few old demons in Welsh minds, for despite the confidence generated by their last offering, they do have some mental baggage from their recent descent.
They have won just two of 25 Tests since the World Cup, both against Japan, and have lost 14 Six Nations games in a row. They are seeking a first victory in Dublin since their World Cup warm-up win in 2015, and first here in the Six Nations since 2012.
Ireland have won the last four meetings since Wales’ 21-16 win at the Principality Stadium in 2021 en route to their title win. Hence Ireland are seeking a record-equalling fifth successive win over Wales, something they’ve only achieved once before, between 2001 and 2005.
“It’s not about the score, or the win,” maintained Farrell. “Honestly, I said it to you a couple of weeks ago; it’s about the performance, about our attitude of progressing.
“This is only three games now, so we’re not saying that anything’s been mastered at all. We’ve started something and we need to make sure that we keep on pushing that forward. The biggest thing that I’ve seen, progression-wise over the three weeks, is we’ve got a bit more presence within the squad.
“That’s what you get when you lose 100-cappers and presence, and people who make the room feel right. People are understanding that now and taking the mantle with that and that helps the competition for places, for sure.”
Ireland may not be as complete as in Twickenham, but reproducing further evidence of that presence and leadership, as well as a sharper attack off broken play and more depth in personnel, would represent a positive night at the office.
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Robert Baloucoune (Ulster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); James Ryan (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Jack Conan (Leinster), Nick Timoney (Ulster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt).
Replacements: Tom Stewart (Ulster), Michael Milne (Munster), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster), Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Nathan Doak (Ulster), Tom Farrell (Munster), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster).
WALES: Louis Rees-Zammit (Bristol); Ellis Mee (Scarlets), Eddie James (Scarlets), Joe Hawkins (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Cardiff); Dan Edwards (Ospreys), Tomos Williams (Gloucester); Rhys Carre (Saracens), Dewi Lake (Ospreys, capt), Tomas Francis (Provence); Dafydd Jenkins (Exeter), Ben Carter (Dragons); Alex Mann (Cardiff), James Botham (Cardiff), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons).
Replacements: Ryan Elias (Scarlets), Nicky Smith (Leicester), Archie Griffin (Bath), Adam Beard (Montpellier), Olly Cracknell (Leicester), Kieran Hardy (Ospreys), Jarrod Evans (Harlequins), Louie Hennessey (Bath).
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU).
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Damian Schneider (UAR).
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU).
FPRO: Tual Trainini (FFR).
Overall head-to-head: P 136, Ireland 59 wins, Wales 70 wins, 7 draws.
Last five meetings – 2025: Wales 18 Ireland 27; 2024: Ireland 31 Wales 7; 2023: Wales 10 Ireland 34; 2022: Ireland 29 Wales 7; 2021: Wales 21 Ireland 16.
Betting: Ireland 1-40, Draw 50-1 Wales 20-1. Handicap odds (Wales +26 pts): Evens Ireland, 16-1 draw, Evens Wales.
Forecast: Ireland to win by 15-20, with a bonus point.
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