Six Nations: Ireland v Italy, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm – Live Virgin Media One and ITV
Apocalypse now? Maybe it’s the weather, for the heavy clouds and the rain appear to have followed the Irish rugby team from Dublin to Portugal to Paris and back to Dublin again. In the doomy and gloomy fallout from Ireland’s chastening opening night in Paris, it’s tempting to wonder if the sun will ever shine on this Irish team again.
Coming on the back of last March’s home thumping by France, the All Blacks’ bloodless coup in Chicago and the Springboks’ scrum-fuelled beating in the Aviva, these four defeats in Ireland’s last seven matches against Tier One opposition is not the kind of form we associate with this team.
Now comes something of a no-win home game with an early afternoon kick-off in a less-than-feverish Aviva Stadium against Italy, a side Ireland have never lost a Six Nations game at home to. Lose, and the outside noise will reach a crescendo. Nor will an unconvincing win lift the sense of doom.
Even a convincing win will probably only temper the gloom, pending next week’s trek to England, who will be seeking a 13th successive Test win in the Calcutta Cup in Saturday’s later kick-off and have risen above Ireland to third in the world rankings.
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As if to underline the feeling that Ireland are in something of a no-win position, unless France are beaten by Wales, which frankly would be astonishing, Ireland cannot reclaim fourth place in the world rankings. However, a first defeat at home to the Azzurri in the Six Nations would see Ireland fall another place to sixth, below Argentina.
Meanwhile, a win for Gonzalo Quesada’s men will lift them above both Fiji and Australia, but could also take them to a record high of seventh if Scotland do not beat England.
While Italy will be without one half of arguably the best midfield partnership in the competition on account of Juan Ignacio Brex’s absence due to family reasons, this might not necessarily be a hammer blow.
Leonardo Marin, who has been moved from fullback to midfield, is a seriously talented player and potent runner whom good judges such as Ian McKinley have been highlighting for years. The multifaceted, versatile 23-year-old would have drawn Italy level with Ireland in Rome last March and set up Paolo Garbisi for a match-winning conversion but for Joe McCarthy’s covering tackle.
What’s more, following on from Brex’s move to Toulon last summer, Marin now regularly partners Tommaso Menoncello in midfield for Benetton, and the Toulouse-bound Menoncello was in scintillating form last Saturday. If Italy can make the Irish defence honeypot as they did to Scotland last week when Louis Lynagh reclaimed a contestable, one could well envisage them sweeping around the edge as they did for Menoncello’s brilliant finish last week in the Stadio Olimpico.
The Zebre fullback Lorenzo Pani starts at 15 in the absence of Tommaso Allan and Ange Capuozzo, and Quesada cited Ireland’s kick chase as the key to that decision.
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“Ireland is the team that kicks the most in the world and also the one that recovers the most kicks. in this, they are the strongest. We decided to put our faith in Lorenzo Pani,” said the coach.
“He worked hard in November, training the entire time with the national team without ever playing. Then he improved a lot and is coming off two or three excellent matches with Zebre. What we saw in training made us feel he deserved this opportunity. Some of his qualities will be important on Saturday.”
As important for Italy’s chances will be whether their pack generally, and their scrum, can scale the heights of a week ago, when lock Niccolò Cannone provided the template with a huge 80-minute effort, up to and concluding with the choke tackle which ended Scotland’s 29-phase attack to salvage the match.
Nor should Paolo Garbisi’s struggles with Toulon be taken at face value, for he is a different beast when wearing the Azzurri blue, as he showed again when winning his 50th Test cap last week.
“I agree on what you say, I think it is the best Italian side that’s come to Dublin,” said Andy Farrell on Thursday. “In terms of respect, you’d be mad not to. We’ve all watched the games over the last year, the last six months and the job that everyone in Italian rugby is doing there is fantastic. Respect is at the forefront ... but honestly,” he added, “it’s about us having more respect for ourselves this week.”
To that end, Farrell is clear about what he wants to see from his team.
“Getting in and out of our own way a bit and going for it, being the best version of yourself, but ourselves as well. Make things happen by not overthinking things, just playing good, hard, quick rugby.”
Given the shortened window of this Six Nations this year, and this game being sandwiched between Paris and Twickenham, Farrell was probably always of a mind to make changes for this game, albeit the events of Paris perhaps accentuated the need to do so.
Throughout his lifetime in rugby since the age of 16 at Wigan, Farrell’s emotional intelligence has been augmented by recognition of rugby’s core values, that it is a game based to a large degree on emotional energy, and this team seems designed to achieve that.
The infusion of relative fresh and proven players, with Cormac Izuchukwu’s athleticism adding to Ireland’s lineout and aerial game, and Robert Baloucoune adding some X-factor finishing on the edge. Most of all, the reinstatement of James Ryan and a heavyweight backrow, supplemented by Edwin Edogbo off the bench, ought to give this team more oomph in the collisions.
What’s more, the bench made a big impact last week. With four Lions on another 6-2 split, it looks even stronger here.
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Robert Baloucoune (Ulster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster); Jeremy Loughman (Munster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), James Ryan (Leinster); Cormac Izuchukwu (Ulster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Edwin Edogbo (Munster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster), Nick Timoney (Ulster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster), Jack Crowley (Munster).
ITALY: Lorenzo Pani (Zebre); Louis Lynagh (Benetton), Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton), Leonardo Marin (Benetton), Monty Ioane (Lyon); Paolo Garbisi (Toulon), Alessandro Fusco (Zebre); Danilo Fischetti (Northampton), Giacomo Nicotera (Stade Francais), Simone Ferrari (Benetton); Niccolo Cannone (Benetton), Andrea Zambonin (Exeter); Michele Lamaro (Benetton, capt), Manuel Zuliani (Benetton), Lorenzo Cannone (Benetton).
Replacements: Tommaso di Bartolomeo (Zebre), Mirco Spagnolo (Benetton), Muhamed Hasa (Zebre), Federico Ruzza (Benetton), Riccardo Favretto (Benetton), David Odiase (Zebre), Alessandro Garbisi (Benetton), Paolo Odogwu (Benetton).
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Sco).
Assistants: Matthew Carley (RFU), Luc Ramos (FFR).
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU).
FPRO: Tual Trainini (FFR).
Overall head-to-head: Played 38, Ireland 34 wins, Italy 4 wins.
Last five meetings – 2025: Ireland won 22-17 in Rome (6N); 2024: Ireland won 36-0 in Dublin (6N); 2023: Ireland won 33-17 in Dublin (WC warm-up); 2023: Ireland won 34-20 in Rome (6N); 2022: Ireland won 57-6 in Dublin.
Betting: 1-12 Ireland, 45-1 Draw, 15-2 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy +16pts): Evens Ireland, 16-1 Draw, Evens Italy.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
