The provinces are currently trying to negotiate choppy waters, three listing a little in performance terms, Ulster arguably the most consistent in terms of the performance metric.
Connacht’s displays are the most volatile in terms of yo-yo levels within a single game. There are passages of play in matches that point to genuine progress. Yet too often that good work is undone in the final quarter as Stuart Lancaster’s side find ways to lose games they had spent 60 minutes placing themselves in dominant, if not winning, positions.
Ulster are something of an outlier. They were denied the opportunity to build on positive momentum by the abandoned fixture in the Netherlands, that ultimately yielded a 28-0, bonus-point win in the committee room.
The interruption will have been frustrating, but the enforced break may yet prove beneficial, offering valuable time together without the physical toll of a match. You would expect them to pick up where they left off this week.
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How did Leinster pull off their win against La Rochelle?
Leinster’s situation is more nuanced. In recent seasons, there has been retrospective criticism of their relatively comfortable passage through the early stages of the Champions Cup and URC, with the suggestion that a lack of edge may have contributed to their struggles at the business end of tournaments.
That criticism does not apply this year. Leinster are having to work for everything, edging from win to win without producing a performance that could be described as complete or authoritative. There is an element of ‘be careful about what you wish for’ around those that wanted Leo Cullen’s squad to be ruffled and scuffed a bit in the early part of the season.
Their latest victory, against La Rochelle, was as harum-scarum as it gets, but the key detail remains unchanged. They found a way to win. Perhaps it’s as relevant to suggest that their opponents found a way to lose. Often, those results carry lasting implications for later in the season.
Traditionally, Leinster’s dominance at this stage of the year has helped create a broader sense of optimism around Irish rugby, particularly in the build up to the Six Nations. Under Andy Farrell, that anticipation has been genuine and largely justified.
Now, with performances dipping below what most would reasonably expect from teams harbouring Champions Cup ambitions, the narrative has shifted. Whether fair or not, a darker cloud has begun to hover, replacing confidence with questions, and Irish rugby finds itself searching for answers at an uncomfortable time.
Munster, meanwhile, will be left scratching their heads as to how they departed Stade Felix Mayol with only a losing bonus point. Despite a largely mediocre performance from Toulon, a side that looked as though they had prepared for a comfortable afternoon, Munster stayed in the contest; in the last 15-minutes it was more than that, they looked like winning.
Jack Crowley was the catalyst, his timing of the run and pass a thing of beauty, while Tadhg Beirne played his part in attracting two defenders. The upshot was a two-on-one mismatch and a try for the visitors.
What stood out most, however, was Munster’s ability to change gears when it mattered. Up to that point, they had been prescriptive, sticking closely to their plan, kicking when required and playing the percentages. Toulon allowed the momentum to swing, and Munster responded by keeping the ball alive to great effect.
Dan Kelly was central to the build-up for Jack O’Donoghue’s try, showing composure to scan the defensive line, recognise a lapse in focus on the edge, and attack the space. That positivity became infectious; Alex Nankivell pushed on the outside and Tom Farrell was alive on the inside for an offload. It set up a grandstand finish.
Unfortunately, the trademark Munster ending never quite materialised. While they were able to shift gears and capitalise on the latitude offered by their hosts, Clayton McMillan’s side eased off on the level of intensity that had created mismatches, offloads and space to attack.
In the end, much of the good work was undone by a penalty. It was a contentious call for some, but it invites a more uncomfortable question. Did it need to be conceded in the first place? That’s the question that the group must answer honestly in the postgame review. What would/could they do differently in that instant?
Leinster experienced something similar in their struggle to sustain the intensity that delivered an early 12-0 lead against La Rochelle. The French side will look back on the contest bemused as to how it slipped away. They created four, perhaps more, gilt-edged try-scoring opportunities, all undone by execution. Convert just one of those chances and it may well have been enough to secure a win on the road.
There was no lack of intensity or creativity from La Rochelle. They beat 38 Leinster defenders, moved the point of attack effectively, and consistently found space. The final pass, however, eluded them. Even so, with 90-seconds remaining, they still held the lead.
La Rochelle find themselves in a similar position to Munster. Performances are hinting at more, but results continue to fall short. Individual errors and moments of uncertainty have forced poor decisions, but it would be harsh to criticise a display in which they outplayed their hosts for 60 minutes.
Leinster, by contrast, were more rigid in their approach. They built pressure methodically, looking to strike wide with Sam Prendergast operating as a second playmaker. Tommy O’Brien was the early catalyst, injecting pace to breach the defensive line, before Prendergast’s subtle in-and-away movement created an overlap that Josh van der Flier finished clinically.
Leinster showed significant grit, but that alone does not win trophies. When comparing the two approaches, La Rochelle were far more comfortable keeping the ball alive. Their continuity, offloads, short passes before and after contact, and rapid changes in the point of attack, caused Leinster persistent problems.
The URC champions remained largely committed to structure and shape. As with Munster, there were extended periods where players appeared to be operating on different wavelengths.
Harmonising shape with intent and good execution is the challenge for a trio of head coaches; Cullen, Lancaster and McMillan. It is a challenge that feels increasingly urgent. As the season progresses the scope for missteps in performance and results narrows quickly.
