Since the age of 16, Andy Farrell has spent all his working life in both codes of rugby. In so doing, he has encountered Australian sides more than any other. Last summer’s British & Irish Lions tour would have represented another deep dive into the Australian sporting mentality for Farrell. With all this in mind, one ventures that he was not remotely inclined to swing from the chandeliers when the Wallabies were beaten 26-19 by Italy in Udine last Saturday.
That result makes Ireland warmer favourites while also setting them up for more of a fall at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday night. Farrell will appreciate as much as anyone that, more often than not, Australian sides are at their most dangerous when wounded and written off.
The second Test in the summer in Melbourne was a case in point, when the Wallabies were given little chance amid some forecasts of the Lions winning by 40 or 50 points. Ultimately, Hugo Keenan’s 79th-minute try secured a series win against Joe Schmidt’s vastly improved side before the hosts secured a deserved consolation win in the third Test.
Ireland’s unconvincing Japan job
A fiercely proud sporting nation, there are countless examples of the Wallabies defying expectations, especially when seemingly damaged goods.
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The defeats by England and Italy in the last fortnight have endangered their hopes of securing a top-six seeding in the draw for the 2027 World Cup, but nobody would want them in the second band of seeds at a home World Cup.
Back in 2003, when hosting the tournament, they were given little or no hope of beating a star-studded All Blacks side which had beaten them 50-21 in Stadium Australia in Sydney en route to a Tri Nations clean sweep.
Come the semi-final against the All Blacks in the same stadium, less than four months later, the Wallabies won 22-10 before taking England to extra-time in the final.
On their end-of-year tour in 2022, Australia lost (28-27) to Italy for the first time ever in Florence and were castigated at home, before pitching up in Dublin for a Saturday night game. After Bundee Aki’s powerfully taken 67th-minute try off the bench, Australia responded through Jordan Petaia’s try four minutes later and the home crowd heaved a huge sigh of relief after a 13-10 win.
A year ago, the Wallabies were beaten 27-13 and pitched up in the Aviva Stadium for their 13th Test of the year the following Saturday as 11-2 underdogs with the bookies. Ireland were ultimately indebted to Jack Crowley’s deft grubber which forced the late attacking lineout from which Gus McCarthy got over the line to earn a 22-19 victory.
The Wallabies looked weary again in Udine. Schmidt admitted it was a “flat” performance. This has been an especially long year; last Saturday was their 13th of 15 Tests in 2025. After Ireland in Dublin, they face France in Paris.
Schmidt has worked a minor miracle in turning the Wallabies around but they don’t have anything like the depth of South Africa and New Zealand. Their comeback win in Ellis Park in round one of the Rugby Championship looks like a peak and many key frontliners have accumulated plenty of minutes.
Even their most-capped player, James Slipper, admitted that 15 Tests in a season is probably too much. Openside Fraser McReight, who won three turnovers in Udine to back up the four he won in Twickenham a week earlier, was also part of the team which lost in Florence three years ago. He has accumulated 923 minutes in a dozen Tests this year, as well as 984 minutes in 13 Super Rugby games for the Reds, but was having none of it last Saturday night.
“I think it’s nonsense,” McReight said when dismissing fatigue as an excuse. “I know the boys are going to hurt, but we’re going to review and we’re going to dig deep for each other, for our families, for the country and rip into training next week. That’s all we can do. We’ve got a big Test against Ireland. It’s going to hurt for 24 hours and then it’s gone.”
Spoken like a true Australian. Beware wounded Wallabies.
Meanwhile, Ireland look more vulnerable than for some time, with particular focus on a wobbly lineout and a misfiring attack. Ireland no longer have a Devin Toner-like figure to pretty much guarantee lineout ball, and perhaps wobbles were always likely in the post-Peter O’Mahony era. But suggestions that Paul O’Connell ought to be replaced or has two games to save his job seem ludicrous.
So if the kickers miss a few penalties and conversions in a few games, should Johnny Sexton be sacked as well? Co-opting O’Connell on to this coaching ticket was truly transformative. True, these latest wobbles revive memories of the malfunctions at the 2023 World Cup, but O’Connell remains an authoritative and authentic figure, and a highly intelligent rugby man who has the respect of the players.
If confidence is an issue with this Irish team, and specifically its lineout and attack, then last Saturday’s statement win by South Africa in Paris demonstrated that they have the most self-belief of any side in the world – and with good reason.
Nothing fazes them, not even when trailing 17-13 and down to 14 players against a vengeful French side in front of an impassioned full house in the Stade de France on the standout occasion of this November window.
Whereas in Wellington they eviscerated the All Blacks with a brilliant second half of attacking rugby, on Saturday they rolled up their sleeves, resorted to a kicking game, employed their scrum and maul, before adding some flourish with tries by the electric Grant Williams and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
Wellington and Paris have been the standout performances of the year by the multifaceted back-to-back world champions and back-to-back winners of the Rugby Championship.
This week’s game against the Wallabies and any side coached by the wily Schmidt will rightly command Ireland’s full attention, but there’s no doubt the Springboks loom ominously over the not-so-distant horizon.
