If the last two weekends are any indication, Leinster will be forced to follow a very different pathway to compete for silverware this season.
That does not mean that the men from D4 will not be contesting playoff matches in the spring of next year, but it does mean they will not be at the top of the United Rugby Championship for the entire season.
That may turn out to be a good thing for both Leinster and the league itself. Having other teams leading the way creates new drama and excitement.
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As the unprecedented number of players Leinster contributed to the Lions tour are only now returning after their preseasons, the province have been significantly weakened in the opening rounds of the league.
Counter-intuitively, at the end of this season, this could be a positive for Leo Cullen’s team.
One of Irish rugby’s greatest strengths is its sports science programmes, which are individually tailored to each of the international players. These players are supremely conditioned.
The Irish Lions have spent the last two months recovering, training and preparing to return to peak condition.
Unlike the Top 14 and English Premiership, in Irelandthe national cause is (correctly) rated above the clubs, so the volume of training and game time of each national player is calibrated to maximise the Irish national team’s performance. That means at times the clubs come second. Which is exactly what we are currently witnessing at Leinster.
[ Leinster look to returning Lions to finally get them purring against SharksOpens in new window ]
However, this means that next May, when there are trophies on the line, these players will be at their peak.
One of the main points emanating from the English and French clubs who forced the changes to the Champions Cup format, from six pool games to only four, was that they were green with jealousy that the Irish provinces rested key players in preparation for Champions Cup matches.
They changed the rules so teams that could only manage one or two Champions Cup pool stage wins could still have a pathway into the knockout stages – a move that has greatly damaged the prestige of the competition.
The only time Leinster may have the majority of their Lions players available before taking on Harlequins in the first round of the Champions Cup on December 7th is the next two weeks against the Sharks and Munster.
Players selected to face New Zealand will not be available against Zebre, just six days before the Test in Chicago.
It also appears that several Irish Lions may be heading to the Test in Chicago having played only a single game. So perhaps in a similar way to Leinster, Ireland, with so many Lions in their team, are sacrificing the first part of their season in the hope that, come the Six Nations, the quality of their sports science programme will have their players capable of winning a championship.
Ireland’s opponents in Chicago have vastly different preparation. The Kiwis will be well rested after winning the second Bledisloe Cup match in Perth, in conditions that more resembled a stormy night in Galway than Western Australia in spring.
In a complete reversal of the circumstances of their first visit to the Windy City in 2016, New Zealand are match fit and highly motivated to put Ireland back into the “pretenders” box where all New Zealanders believe the green team belong.
All of which will make Chicago a very difficult task for Ireland, and a perfect example of the chaotic and dysfunctional rugby calendar that Leo Cullen and Andy Farrell must navigate.
However, if we strategically consider Leinster’s season, they have put the long and arduous travel to South Africa behind them at the beginning of the season. Despite those defeats, they know that at the business end of the year, after the Six Nations, their matches should be close to home.
However, there is one area that will be of deep concern inside the Leinster camp: defence wins championships and no defensive system works without a dedicated mindset from each player to make their tackles. Whether it be Irish national players or promising academy rookies, it is mandatory that each player takes responsibility to make their tackles.
That personal defensive responsibility from the Leinster players was absent in Cape Town and below standard in Pretoria.
The Bulls ran through gaps in the Leinster defensive line close to the rucks on several occasions – something that is totally unacceptable to teams who aspire to win Championships.
However highly talented Sam Prendergast is with the ball in his hands, he has to make his tackles.
Rugby is not the NFL. Unlike American quarterbacks, rugby outhalves must possess high-quality tackling technique to be selected for elite international competitions.
We all understand that Prendergast is still learning his craft, but his missed tackle on Henry Pollock, who ran over him to score in last season’s Champions Cup semi-final, was a grave error. While we all make mistakes, Prendergast’s tackling in Cape Town was once again well below the standards required.
Prendergast will not be selected to start a Test match without significant improvements in his tackle technique.
The rest of 2025 will be a difficult and complicated period for both Leinster and Ireland. However, when the spring of 2026 comes, do not be surprised if it is not just the flowers that begin to blossom.
