Redemption starts here

Rugby/ Six Nations Championship: Redemption time. The coach may be feeling the heat like never before and his own selection often defied current form individually and the form of this team, but it at least offers virtually all of those who take the pitch today the chance to restore their own sense of worth in green.

We saw it in the English game here last season after the defeat to France, and their sense of debt to the supporters today may be as motivating a factor as anything.

Cocooned in an increasingly pressurised Bordeaux bubble, the players had returned home to a hugely disappointed public, even though most of that was directed toward Eddie O'Sullivan. The net result is that, regrettably, the head coach's own standing is now inextricably linked with each performance and result.

Now, rather than start a new four-year cycle as boldly as all his counterparts have done to varying degrees, O'Sullivan has potentially provided a rod to beat him with. At the same time, not only is the future of the coaching staff now entwined with the coach, so too is the future of this "team". Who knows? Maybe it's a master stroke. The inward anger of the World Cup can now be vented on Italy.

This championship is all about momentum, and nothing would give this team a shot in the arm more than a try in the first quarter. With one bound, they could even break free.

But as O'Sullivan has warned, there is a risk that Ireland set off too quickly and, effectively, "do a Scotland" in the face of the Italians' smothering defence, if not quite on the scale of coughing up 21 points in seven minutes.

A tad ominously, the Italians are usually dogged, and given the need to exorcise ghosts, patience may not be Ireland's finest virtue today, least of all with a 2pm kick-off and a relatively subdued crowd if an arm wrestle develops.

Sterner tests await, with a haunting return to Paris to face a French team themselves on a mission of redemption, regardless of whether their newly remodelled team slips up in the icy cold of Edinburgh tomorrow.

Ideally, Ireland need not only to win today, but to win well. There needs to be, à laMunster, a clearly defined, dynamic all-round effort, preferably with Eoin Reddan the catalyst for more go-forward ball from the forwards.

The performances of Munster especially, and on occasion Leinster, have been restorative. They have rejuvenated several players who were consumed by pressure and self-doubt in the World Cup, notably Ronan O'Gara. He is playing like a dream again, and while no Irish player might have more reason to be haunted by memories of the autumn if things start to unravel, his mental strength is almost as phenomenal as his goal-kicking, tactical kicking and decision-making.

In a sense, Ireland are on a hiding to nothing. They have beaten the Azzurri 11 times in a row. The Italians are 1 to 2 favourites for the wooden spoon. While their coterie of Stade Français and French-based players give them real bite up front and pace in the backs, 10 of their squad are home-based and their results in the European cups underline the paucity of their domestic game.

They come here, true, on the back of a high of fourth place last season and having come within a kick of the World Cup quarter-finals, and the undoubted coup of acquiring Nick Mallett as coach.

But they're missing their last two, hugely influential, captains, and hence have real issues in the direction of their team from halfback; Pietro Travagli has not played Test rugby in over three years and Andrea Masi is an experiment that will surely need time, even though Ireland lack a classic, hounding openside.

There's been a theme in Ireland's wins over Italy: they have either been 50-pointers, marked by offloading and a high tempo to avert Italian spoiling at the breakdown, or closer arm wrestles.

People ask will it be the free-flowing Ireland of that glorious St Patrick's Day, or the grinding win of Ravenhill in August. Alas, the evidence points to the latter.

First, Denis Hickie, wonderfully influential that sunny Rome day, is retired, Shane Horgan is ruled out, and Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll look short of confidence. The balance of the back three, with Geordan Murphy's creativity potentially wasted on the wing, does not suggest new-found potency.

Furthermore, it is likely to be cold, windy and even wet.

Mallett has talked of varying Italy's game, O'Sullivan of reviving a supposedly "high risk" ball-in-hand, offloading strategy.

But this is more likely to be trench warfare with Carlo Nieto's absence from the bench perhaps reducing Italy's scope for a fresh, full-on scrummaging, mauling assault in the last half-hour. Either way, cue that man O'Gara.

Presuming the Munster lifters combine with Malcolm O'Kelly, Simon Easterby and Donncha O'Callaghan to ensure good lineout ball, that, in the absence of Marco Bortolami, can give Ireland a decided edge. And O'Gara must surely be better equipped than Masi to turn the screw tactically, and more reliable kicking at goal than David Bortolussi.

With "Rog" back in the groove and a sense that everyone is against them, that should be enough for the moment.

Overall: Played 12, Ireland 9 wins, Italy 3 wins.

Last five meetings: 2007 - Ireland 23 Italy 20 (Ravenhill); Italy 24 Ireland 51 (Stadio Flaminio); 2006 - Ireland 26 Italy 16 (Lansdowne Road); 2005 - Italy 17 Ireland 28 (Stadio Flaminio); 2004 - Ireland 19 Italy 3 (Lansdowne Road).

Biggest win: Ireland - 60-13 (2000) Lansdowne Road. Italy - 37-22 (1997) Bologna.

Betting (Paddy Power):Handicap odds (= Italy +16pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 draw, 10/11 Italy. Match odds: 1/20 Ireland, 15/21 Italy, 40/1 draw.

Forecast: Ireland by 15-20.