The Aintree Grand National’s capacity for romance can’t be underestimated but on Saturday it’s odds against a fairytale outcome of the sort the world’s most famous steeplechase is renowned. The making of history, though, might be a different matter.
Should any of Willie Mullins’s eight runners emerge on top he will emulate the legendary Vincent O’Brien who won it three years in a row between 1952-54. He will also set a record-equalling tally of four Grand National victories during his stellar career.
The 2024 winner I Am Maximus leads the Mullins team and if last year’s winner Nick Rockett is absent, the potential remains for similar domination when Mullins had five of the first seven home.
Gordon Elliott also has a shot at a record-equalling fourth Grand National victory with five chances, and proof of the modern consolidation of power in jump racing is underlined by owner JP McManus’s own handful of big race chances.
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In a maximum 34-runner field there are still potential ‘little guy’ results. Tipperary-based Connor King trains just two horses, and Oscars Brother will be ridden by his brother Daniel. The talented novice is owned by McManus.
Cork-based Terence O’Brien saddles Answer To Kayf, while The Real Whacker and Mr Vango are two home-based outsiders with catchy names that come with the sort of unlikely backstory that used to be a speciality of the National.
However, in a race first run in 1839, won by the aptly named Lottery, the chance of the game’s big guns being spiked have receded almost as much as the National’s once fearsome challenge has been diluted.
Modern welfare standards, or squeamishness to those dismissive of racing’s social contract with the broader public, make the famous old race a very different challenge now. While it has raised the National’s quality, that quality is usually in the hands of a tiny few.
McManus has won the National twice in the last decade while Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown team has won three times.
There have been evocative stories among them. Rachael Blackmore’s 2021 victory on Minella Times was ground-breaking. Tiger Roll was the nearest thing to an Aintree specialist since the legendary Red Rum. Mullins’ emotion on seeing his son Patrick ride Nick Rockett to success was irresistible.
But odds of just 2/1 about a Mullins winner this time reflect a very different National reality compared to the lottery lore that helped the race forge such a unique place in popular consciousness.
Nevertheless, live coverage in over 130 countries underline the Grand National’s enduring appeal as a spectacle. And if it’s a different kind of spectacle, different is hardly the same as wrong, especially if it ensures the race can continue to thrive.
Another modern characteristic is Irish dominance. There have been 32 Irish-trained winners in its history, 13 of which have come in the last 25 renewals. A total of 22 starters from this country will face the tape at 4pm on Saturday when, once again, British racing’s starting procedures will be under the spotlight.
Shambolic scenes at the start of many races at Cheltenham last month suggest confusion might reign again. However, the straightforward exercise pulled off at the start of Monday’s Irish Grand National suggests a common-sense approach to the tricky task of effecting a fair start shouldn’t be above the wit of officialdom.
Not since Red Rum has a horse regained the National crown, but Paul Townend’s decision to opt for I Am Maximus over Grangeclare West smacks of confidence that the McManus-owned runner can defy topweight. Patrick Mullins will try to win the race back-to-back on Grangeclare West, who was third a year ago.
There will another family link when Joseph O’Brien legs his cousin JJ Slevin on to the former King George winner Banbridge. O’Brien also saddles Jordans and, considering he has a pair of Melbourne Cup victories under his belt, the 32-year-old trainer could pull off a remarkable double in the world’s two biggest handicaps.
Brothers Dan and Harry Skelton have Panic Attack, who has attracted significant market support to become the 14th mare to win the race, although the first since Nickel Coin in 1951. Danny Mullins teams up with Champ Kiely for his uncle and this former Grade One winner could well outrun his odds on a decent surface.
Ultimately a little piece of history, and even a pretty good story, might yet emerge from this National.
It’s 121 years since a horse trained in Wales was victorious – Haiti Couleurs, trained in Pembrokeshire by Rebecca Curtis, will be looking to end that stretch. Within the last year he has won both the Irish National and the Welsh National. The step up to last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup proved beyond him but, presuming it hasn’t left a mark, the giant gelding has the potential to overpower a modern Aintree National.
“If you were building a Grand National horse, you’d probably build one like Haiti Couleurs,” said his rider, British champion jockey Sean Bowen, adding that some parts of the Aintree challenge still apply.
“A clear round is everything. You need to get into a rhythm, stay out of trouble, and give your horse the best chance. If he gets that, he’s got a massive chance. I can’t wait to ride him in the race. Victory in the Grand National would be a dream come true.
Forecast: 1. Haiti Couleurs 2. Champ Kiely 3. Panic Attack 4. Final Orders
