Days out from Cheltenham and much of this weekend’s action will be a case of trying to read festival runes for clues as to what might unfold over the biggest four days of the racing year.
A critical acceptance stage for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Saturday, with the opportunity to supplement into steeplechasing’s blue riband at a cost of £25,000 (€28,870).
JP McManus did it to maximum effect with Inothewayurthinkin a year ago and still has the option open to add Fact To File to the Gold Cup.
Much of the available signals, however, suggest the horse – who’s as low as 5/2 favourite with one firm for the Gold Cup – will skip jump racing’s most prized contest and instead try to repeat his success in last year’s Ryanair Chase.
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Speaking at a Cheltenham preview night in Dublin on Thursday, AP McCoy strongly indicated the Ryanair will be Fact To File’s festival target.
“I’d say he will run in the Ryanair. JP will make that decision, but with the ground going as it is, I would think it might be the Ryanair,” said the 20-time British champion jockey who is now a key member of the McManus team.
McManus also has Inothewayurthinkin, Spillane’s Tower and I Am Maximus in the Gold Cup mix.
McCoy added: “Fact To File would probably start favourite for the Gold Cup, but he would be long odds-on in the Ryanair. I’m not saying he’ll definitely win it, but he’ll be a short price.
“If I was riding, I would like him to be in the Ryanair and then take my chance and hope I’d pick the right one in the Gold Cup. I’d like to have a short-priced one on my side in the Ryanair.
“He could win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and it’s of course the best race, but it’s also very open and I don’t think the Ryanair would be very open if he runs in it."
It was no surprise, then, to see the Irish Gold Cup winner’s name among the 14 entries left in the Ryanair on Friday. Fact To File shapes as potentially the festival’s shortest-priced favourite if he lines up in it. He was a general 4/7 shot afterwards.
That’s despite his stable companion Gaelic Warrior also being left in the Ryanair. With Willie Mullins having suggested the horses will be split up, there is a widespread expectation that Gaelic Warrior will head to the Gold Cup.
Joe Chambers, spokesman for owner Rich Ricci, said on Friday: “He has a Gold Cup contender on his hands so why run in the Ryanair?”
Actual decisions rather than abundant speculation may have to wait until final declarations are made for the Ryanair on Tuesday. Another Mullins star, Lossiemouth, is one of 14 names still in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, although she’s also a contender for Unibet Champion Hurdle glory. Final declarations for hurdling’s championship are on Sunday.
In contrast, it appears comparatively undramatic in relation to the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle. Teahupoo, as expected, tops 13 horses still in contention.
Good-to-soft ground conditions are expected for Tuesday’s festival start and watering on Cheltenham’s New course started on Friday. Up to 8mm was applied to stop the going getting too quick later in the week.
Jon Pullin, clerk of the course, reported: “If we leave the New course alone and don’t get very much rain until Wednesday or Thursday, we could be far too quick. The watering we are doing is to put us in a position where we can react as the forecast firms up for the back end of the week."
It is a different story for this weekend’s Irish action, with testing conditions at both Gowran and Naas. Not surprisingly, Jack Kennedy restricts himself to a trio of rides, all over hurdles, while Mullins’s No 1, Paul Townend, is taking the weekend off ahead of a superb book of festival rides.
Naas hosts the €100,000 Bar 1 Leinster National as well as the Grade Three Kingsfurze Novice Hurdle, although festival clues will be sought, including in relation to the form of some stables.
Henry De Bromhead restricts his weekend activity to two runners in Saturday’s €45,000 Holden Plant Handicap Chase, including last year’s winner Champagne Mahler. Victory for either would encourage hopes that the Co Waterford trainer may be emerging from a fallow period of stable form at just the right time.
Noel Meade’s last National Hunt winner was Affordale Fury in the Savills Chase at Christmas. The Gold Cup outsider is set to be joined at Cheltenham by Meade’s big Bumper hope The Mourne Rambler. The veteran trainer will hope for encouragement from a handful of weekend runners.
They include Messerschmitt who travels to Sandown for Saturday’s cross-channel feature, the Betfair Imperial Cup. Meade has booked Danny McMenamin for the sole Irish hope in a handicap that only Peter Fahey’s Suprise Package has taken back to Ireland in the last two decades.
There is a £100,000 (€115,420) bonus from the sponsors if the Imperial Cup winner can go on to win at the Cheltenham festival. Messerschmitt holds an entry in next Friday’s County Hurdle.
Meade’s talented dual-purpose horse Blake still holds a Supreme entry although lines up in Sunday’s Kingsfurze at Naas. Blake ran fifth behind Talk The Talk at the Dublin Racing Festival and his 139 rating makes for a convincing argument in this context.
