Despite the British government giving a conditional green light for racing to resume on Wednesday, the fate of the Cheltenham festival still rests on the result of foot-and-mouth tests on a farm less than five miles from the racecourse today.
The Cheltenham spokesman, Peter McNeile, confirmed last evening that the results of the tests on a farm which placed the racecourse within a Ministry of Agriculture exclusion zone are expected sometime today, but he remained upbeat.
"The chances of an outbreak are really quite slim," McNeile said. "If you take it that there are 150 suspected cases of this type in the entire country, and just five to eight a day are confirmed, then you are looking at a 20 to 1 shot, which is pretty good odds.
"Almost without exception the cases that have been confirmed so far have been diagnosed almost immediately, so the longer this goes on the more chance we have."
If the odds work against the racecourse, however, McNeile was keen to stress that would not rule out postponing the festival to April.
"It would certainly mean March is out but not April. Twenty-eight days has been the longest exclusion to date which would allow us to race in April," he said. "However, every day that passes gets us closer to March 13th, and we are reasonably confident of going ahead, provided there is not another nearby case." On the domestic front, top Curragh trainer Dermot Weld said yesterday he is "very hopeful" a solution to the plight of trainers banned from working racehorses there will be found next week.
Representations were made to the district veterinary officer yesterday, but a resolution to the problem is not likely to be found until Monday, at the earliest, following the sealing off of a meat factory in Kildare yesterday.
Paddy Power bookmakers yesterday announced they will refund all bets on Irish horses not taking part at Cheltenham, and that any British-trained horse withdrawn from the festival because of the foot-and-mouth crisis will be treated the same way.
The organisation don't think much of the chances of the festival going ahead on Tuesday week, describing that as an "unlikely event" and offering 1 to 8 that they are right. It's 5 to 1 about Cheltenham going ahead as scheduled.
The Jefferson Smurfit Group, who sponsor the Champion Hurdle, have also confirmed that neither the chairman, Michael Smurfit, nor any executives will attend Cheltenham. Sponsorship of the big race is not affected, however.
The Association of Irish Racehorse Owners have also recommended their members do not travel to Cheltenham.
