RUGBY: Australia and Ireland appear to be approaching their Pool A decider in Melbourne on Saturday with contrasting mindsets, writes Gerry Thornley in Melbourne.
Whereas Eddie O'Sullivan yesterday made it abundantly clear Ireland would be targeting their quarter-final a week later, the Wallabies know this will probably be a bigger test for them than their quarter-final.
Of course this all supposes Australia beat Ireland and thus progress to a patently easier quarter-final against the winners of the Scotland-Fiji tie in Pool B, with Ireland thus consigned to the more daunting task of meeting France, who are assured of winning Pool B.
O'Sullivan explained his rationale thus: "We have a minimum of two games left in Rugby World Cup. We talked about this with the players this morning, and at the end of the day the most important game to win is the second one. If we win next Saturday and lose the following week, we're going home. If we lose next Saturday and win the following week, we're going to stay for the duration. So that's a factor. The most important game is the quarter-final game, whoever that is against."
What this doesn't explicitly acknowledge is that, in the event of losing on Saturday, Ireland will definitely meet France in the quarter-finals in Melbourne on Sunday week - a reprise of the 1995 last-eight meeting which Ireland lost by 36-12 in South Africa.
Ireland beat France 15-12 in difficult conditions at Lansdowne Road in March, but the preceding year Les Bleus clinched the Grand Slam with a 44-5 win over Ireland in Paris. O'Sullivan's team is, admittedly, vastly improved since that day, when Mike Ford's and Niall O'Donovan's defensive and lineout systems were only bedding in.
O'Sullivan spoke of "timing and preparation" as being the key elements in a World Cup, and said France were improving with every game. As they showed in beating Scotland 51-9 and Fiji 61-18, they will be much tougher opponents in the last eight.
By contrast, Ireland beat Fiji with a notional "second string" selection in Dublin last November by 64-17, and their 29-10 win in Murrayfield last month followed a 36-6 win at the same ground in February and a 43-22 win in Lansdowne Road last year. That's an aggregate of 108-38 in their last three meetings with the Scots. In short, whoever wins at the Telstra Dome on Saturday is a shoo-in for a semi-final, almost certainly against the All Blacks.
There is, admittedly, a certain merit in O'Sullivan's logic, in that were Ireland to run themselves into the ground in what would probably be a losing cause against Australia, they would have to front up against the French eight days later in Melbourne, a fifth game in five weeks for the nucleus of the side. They've also a six-day run-in to this game, whereas they'd have an eight-day run-in without travel to a meeting with France.
Maybe O'Sullivan is trying to take the pressure off his players, though that's a dangerous game with the Irish psyche. Perhaps he's engaging Eddie Jones in a game of double bluff, but such hoodwinking is not O'Sullivan's style.
Ireland will still be playing a strong side on Saturday. "What we have to do this weekend is go into this game and give it our best shot, and try and get past Australia. That would make a different landscape for ourselves going into the quarter-finals," he admitted.
"But at the end of the day the quarter-final is the key game. That doesn't mean we're taking our foot off the pedal for next Saturday, but it might weigh in terms of selection if a player is borderline: whether you'd rest him and play him in the quarter-final, or risk him next Saturday. It doesn't mean we won't be trying any less. But it might just colour your thinking on selection."
Hence, a few changes seem inevitable after the deferral of selection until tomorrow. Apart from Alan Quinlan, no one else in the squad is ruled out, although Victor Costello (sore thigh) and Kevin Maggs (strained ankle) must be considered doubtful.
Against that, Anthony Foley and Gary Longwell are back in training and must be in line for recalls with O'Sullivan eager to use most of his established players, if not all of the 30-man squad. Foley will probably start at number eight, while Longwell may well start, perhaps instead of Malcolm O'Kelly. David Wallace arrived for training yesterday, and O'Sullivan pointedly put the late call-up into contention.
"Absolutely, because this was a policy we adopted prior to Rugby World Cup. There was the question of bringing players to Australia and training them at a separate base. We were of the opinion that match fitness was more important. So David has come into this competition with five games under his belt and a particularly good run-out last weekend. He's slightly jetlagged, it has to be said, but better to be a little big jetlagged than ring rusty."
Wallace's candidature, at the very least for a place in the 22, will be strengthened if the ball-carrying of Costello is kept back for the quarter-finals. Marcus Horan could be in line for a start also, though the notion of Keith Wood resting himself seems unlikely - holding himself back just isn't his style.
It also seems likely Ronan O'Gara will reclaim the starting outhalf role from David Humphreys, while the doubt about Maggs raises the possibility of bringing John Kelly into midfield alongside Brian O'Driscoll, as happened in New Zealand on last year's summer tour.
Alternatively, O'Sullivan could re-route Shane Horgan to inside centre, although he last played there for Ireland against Italy in March 2002, and the Irish coach may be reluctant to do that.
O'Sullivan, in vintage form when handling the media and especially the Australian media, reacted deftly when informed Ireland yesterday reclaimed third place from Australia in those immaterial but vexed IRB world rankings. "This is like musical chairs. At 12.0 last night they were better than us, but at 12.0 today we are better than them," he said wearily. "I rest my case."
The Wallabies will unveil their hand today, with Jones expected to recall prop Ben Darwin for Al Baxter, who made his first Test start in the opener against Argentina, in a selection otherwise unchanged from that game, as Jones harnesses his most experienced forward line-up for what he believes will be a searching examination up front.
The capacity at Telstra Dome is 56,347, although the Australian RU's chief executive, John O'Neill, has said they could have filled the ground four times over.
The reason for having this game at the Telstra Dome can be gauged from a glance at the stadium, for the figure "7" denotes it is owned by Channel 7, who have the Australian television rights for live coverage, while Fox Sports have delayed transmissions.
Fortunately, as there was heavy rain yesterday, and more is forecast, the dome will come in handy.
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