Munster ones I'm worried about

RUGBY:Leinster and Munster must beat the best teams in Europe just to get out of their Heineken Cup pools, writes LIAM TOLAND

IF YOURE going to win the Heineken Cup then you have to beat the best in Europe. This certainly makes sense but unfortunately both Munster and Leinster must beat the best in Europe to simply get out of their groups. Ulster, by contrast, have a great chance to build on an excellent start in the Magners League.

All three provinces have not hit the heights that will come with more rugby and continuity of selection. In the meantime, timing is all important and as Bayonne entertain (bash) Harlequins, fellow Amlin Challenge Cup Pool One side Connacht should be easing past Italians I Cavalieri Estra in Stadio Lungobisenzio.

Timing is certainly key for Ulster, with the best of starts, at home to Aironi Rugby, while fellow poolers Bath inflict some pain on Biarritz Olympique.

As always, the middle two fixtures is the making of the Heineken Cup season, not necessarily based on who you play but who you don’t.

In most cases the Irish provinces can control their own destinies but for Munster and Leinster such tough groups can be made all the easier if London Irish and Toulon and Saracens and Racing Métro 92 neutralise each other in the middle weeks.

But Leinster will play ASM Clermont Auvergne away on their third week, whereas Munster are at home against the Ospreys, as are Ulster to Bath.

At this remove – even after their brilliant Aviva win – Leinster have the toughest draw. For several seasons Clermont have been the best team in Europe. They certainly forced the very best out of Munster and but for Butch James’ errant kicking in the RDS Leinster would have fallen. That said it is for Munster I have the most concern this weekend.

With the loss of Lifeimi Mafi and Tomás O’Leary Munster are forced once again into changes. With Ian Dowling out and Keith Earls unprepared the attention once again will go to Munster’s number 10 and 12, especially due to the battering O’Gara took from all comers in Dublin last week.

With English opponents tomorrow it is important to note the Aviva Premiership is a vastly different league to our Magners League. It bases its game plan on survival and then power, power, power and finally pace.

Defences are battered open with little subtlety. London Irish are stacked with such players and those who read Bob Casey each week will have gained an insight into their regime.

A tad loose, I fancy, Bob, considering your opposition in Pool Three, the “red team”.

Last week’s late arrival of Samoan super sub Sailosi Tagicakibau against Leeds Carnegie with two tries in 17 minutes is very telling.

Furthermore the English teams tend to use their 10s as a fulcrum, with baby Ryan Lamb bringing as much power into that corridor, not him obviously, but brutes like Tagicakibau off the wing and centre Seilala Mapusua.

If London Irish target the inside defence of O’Gara watch how Sam Tuitupou reacts. Then watch what London Irish do.

Last week Leinster struggled to get quick ball away from the breakdown having broken the first line at 10. London Irish will look to repeat the contact, with O’Gara happy to suck in Tuitupou and immediately expose the space.

Strange as it may appear, Tagicakibau is as well to stop short of contact with O’Gara, hit the deck and ensure an immediate scrumhalf pass wide as the lateral movement of Tuitupou is sufficient success.

However, the ball will likely arrive quickly from their excellent “off the top” (OTT) lineout, either to Mapusua running hard or to Lamb, who will bring their blindside wingers into the game.

Munster must ensure they don’t have a prop at the tail in defensive lineouts at any stage. The Exiles’ OTT and subsequent power play will expose the tail defence. Munster’s backrow must hunt in their chain of three to fill the inside channel.

Aviva Premiership sides don’t bring the type of dogged breakdown play of last week’s Leinster-Munster fixture and certainly lack the crazy ferocity of the French breakdown but they do work very hard at the clinical counter ruck.

This will provide much more penalty opportunities as the Munster player may be forced to hold the ball on the deck. But of far more concern is London Irish’s try scoring with 3.4 per game.

At home they are scoring tries, which will force Munster to do the same. If that’s not enough London Irish are at their most dangerous from 80 metres out. Munster must not turnover at distance.

Where will Munster’s scores come from? There is no doubt Damien Varley has equipped himself extremely well but his middle and tail ball will be tested tomorrow.

The lineout maul has proved very fruitful over the years for Munster but without the variation they will struggle. Against the Ospreys, Munster were full of running but still managed but one try, same against Edinburgh.

That’s why the four against Glasgow must be repeated. On two key attacking plays last week O’Gara brought his Tuitupou battering ram into play, first on a scissors and secondly on a flat outside pass in traffic. Both times Leinster double-teamed him on the gain line.

Munster are faced with two choices. Reverting to a fringe attack off the breakdown utilising Varley, Alan Quinlan, David Wallace and Denis Leamy (selection dependant); this will maintain possession but is ponderous. Failing that, they must use width. Here’s where Tuitupou can be of use as a decoy. No doubt he is a danger man who will concern Lamb’s defence.

London Irish will opt to protect Lamb which will provide ideal opportunities for their blindside wingers to join the line, freeing the players out wide with Doug Howlett looking like the best option for a breakthrough.

Leinster entertain a fancy table-topping Top 14 Racing Métro 92, who were brutally unlucky against Toulouse last week and that’s with Sebastian Chabal and Lionel Nallet starting on the bench.

Where Brock James struggled Frans Steyn will punish. Leinster are far from the finished article but I expect Schmidt to bring some real insight and for all their French palaver it’ll be a very tough opener for Racing.

With the exception of travelling Connacht, home wins all round.

PS: Bet of the day Sale Sharks v El Salvadore; 64 point spread!