Were Munster to beat Biarritz in Sunday's Heineken Cup quarter-final at Thomond Park they would have a 50-50 chance of a "home" semi-final in Lansdowne Road when the draw for the last four is made in Dublin on Tuesday week.
Each of the four semi-finalists will have to nominate neutral venues in their own countries with a minimum capacity of 20,000, which leaves Munster with no practical option other than to nominate Lansdowne Road. In the event of them being drawn first or third out of the hat they would play the semi-final there.
"Lansdowne Road is the only rugby ground which can hold that kind of attendance in Ireland so it's an automatic decision," commented Garret Fitzgerald, the chief executive of the Munster Branch.
The province's named home venues, Musgrave Park and Thomond Park, would be debarred even if either were equipped with a minimum 20,000 capacity. But theoretically the IRFU could, on Munster's behalf, nominate, say, a GAA ground in the province, no matter how close it was to either venue. Were Leinster in the same position, they could nominate Lansdowne Road as a "neutral" venue, even though it's also in Dublin, and scarcely a mile away from their home venue at Donnybrook.
For the time being, all that is hypothetical, and the Munster Branch's primary concern has been the allocation of 13,300 tickets for next Sunday's quarter-final, where demand has exceeded supply by, most probably, at least three to one.
This has happened before, against Saracens and Stade Francais last season, and will most likely happen again, so the problem is not liable to go away. One option which the Munster Branch looked into last season was approaching the GAA regarding several venues in the province which could have accommodated demand.
"It was looked into last season, but it wasn't a runner with the association," said Garret Fitzgerald. "We would love to have the opportunity to use these venues but the people who own these venues are entitled to make their own decisions and we respect the decisions they make on them. It would be a bonus if they were available but at the same time each sport has to look after itself."
The alternative of moving this Sunday's quarter-final to Lansdowne Road wasn't explored as there is an understandable reluctance to sacrifice the Thomond Park factor. Munster haven't lost there in five years and have never lost there in European Cup matches. "Our view on that is that we could play in front of 50,000 people in Lansdowne Road and lose. It's way more important to play in front of 13,000 and win," said Fitzgerald. "When you get home advantage you've got to use home advantage, and this is the last opportunity to use home advantage."
Such was the interest in tickets for next Sunday's game that estimates for the first sightings of would-be ticket buyers for yesterday's official sale outside Thomond Park and the Munster Branch offices in Limerick and Cork were at 10.30 p.m. on Monday night.
One supporter I spoke to claimed to have begun queuing at 5 a.m., and was among the last batch of 10 people in line when the ticket sales were completed within two hours of the Thomond Park offices opening at 10 a.m. So, it seems, anybody who began queuing outside Thomond Park from 5 a.m. onwards was too late.
This left almost 1,000 supporters disappointed outside in the pouring rain, with a similar story in Cork when the tickets sales were halted at approximately 11.15 a.m. Indeed, such was the congestion that the company employed to install additional temporary seating for Sunday's game could not gain access to the ground.
Munster Branch officials had intended issuing four tickets per applicant, but revised that figure down to two tickets per buyer, with the option of one additional schoolboy ticket. The Limerick and Cork outlets each had a limit of 1,400 tickets.
Biarritz were entitled to 25 per cent of the tickets, but aside from their complimentary 50 stand tickets, requested only another 200. A further 250 tickets are being issued to each of the 14 senior clubs in Munster (a total of 3,500) and roughly another 2,000 are allotted to junior clubs, with more still to referees, youths and schools sections, as well as Branch representatives, sponsors, IRFU and ERC. Another 700 are allocated to the 350 members of the Munster Supporters Club.
The real shame would be if those who have travelled abroad supporting Munster missed out. Where possible, as the branch honorary treasurer Jim Riordan admitted, "we try to look after the people we know are supporters of the Munster team, not just in Castres, Bath and Newport this year, but last year as well".
"What was attempted was to have a fair distribution of tickets to people who are followers of Munster," said Fitzgerald, who stressed that the allocation to the clubs of roughly 5,500 added to the other required allocations left little to distribute. "I don't know if there was any other way," he added. "It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out it's an impossible situation, and the bottom line is that 30,000 into 13,000 won't go, no matter what way you go about it."
Of course there are no guarantees that clubs will issue tickets to their supporters, as opposed to making badly-needed cash out of the corporate hospitality sector. Furthermore, some clubs have more members or supporters than others.
Munster coach Declan Kidney will announce the team tomorrow at 1.30 p.m. His main concern continues to be an ankle injury to right wing John Kelly, sustained in the victory over Castres and which forced the Cork Constitution player to retire prematurely.
Dominic Crotty was suffering from cramp but he is expected to be fine by the end of the week. Kidney is optimistic that Kelly will also be available.
Injury permitting, the only selection conundrum facing Kidney is whether to retain Killian Keane alongside Mike Mullins or reinstate a fit again Jason Holland, who came on as replacement the last day.
