Marching to November

Six Nations in World Cup years: Can form in March be relevant come November? Only England have managed to win the Six Nations…

Six Nations in World Cup years:Can form in March be relevant come November? Only England have managed to win the Six Nations and World Cup in the same year. Johnny Wattersonreports.

FROM THE recent ministerial interference on the issue of television rights for The Six Nations Championship, we probably got to know more than the IRFU would have liked about the strategic importance of that competition for the financial health of rugby in Ireland. The “cash cow” that is the Six Nations affords Ireland a bigger slice of the pie than a percentage share according to the nation’s size and weight. It means Ireland must make the annual event its primary concern.

Ireland coach Declan Kidney, and Eddie O’Sullivan before him, stated it many times. IRFU CEO Philip Browne emphasised the point almost ad nauseam as Minister Ryan threatened to pull the rug from under the current agreement and insist on free-to-air broadcasting of the event.

In other statements the IRFU have said the Rugby World Cup every four years costs Irish rugby money. If you factor in an annual event that earns millions each year and another that is costly to attend each four-year cycle, relative importance in an overall strategic sense is easily determined.

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But that’s a survival issue and not a question of national pride or hubris or even why rugby is played. A World Cup Trophy, one New Zealand have been unable to win since the first, in 1987, on home soil, has a resonance far beyond any Six Nations or Grand Slam win. However, the weight of the domestic competition remains so pressing it determines how seriously Kidney must approach this year. The strongest Irish team will take the field every time. The Six Nations is not an experimental forum even in a World Cup year.

In Ireland’s case, at least, there appears to be little correlation between doing well in the Six Nations and carrying that on to a World Cup tournament later the same year, with the most recent World Cup in 2007 a case in point.

For England and France there does seem to be a trend that a strong performance in the European winter can be taken to the global level later in the year and there is some tangible success over the tournaments to show that, especially from England.

In the Six World Cup years since 1987, England have won the Six Nations Grand Slam three times and France once. In that time only England have gone on to win the World Cup, in 2003, also the year they won the Grand Slam.

England also lost in the World Cup final in 1991, a Grand Slam winning year for them and lost again to South Africa in 2007, the year the Six Nations came down to the last day, with four teams, England, France, Ireland and Italy, all going into the final round of matches as championship candidates.

France were narrowly ahead of Ireland on points difference, while England and Italy could become champions if they won by a large margin and the other results fell in their favour.

The game between Ireland and Italy was played first. At half-time, Ireland led by a single point, but extended their lead. As time ran out, Ireland were in possession and could have kicked the ball into touch, ending the game and leaving France requiring a 30-point margin in their game; instead, they opted to set France a bigger target, only for Italy to regain possession and score a converted try, reducing France’s target to 23 points against Scotland. In that match Elvis Vermeulen scored a converted try in injury-time to gave France a 27-point victory and win them the Championship.

Ireland gambled and lost and would take that wretched luck with them to Bordeaux in a year of “what might have been”, while France’s win over Scotland propelled them towards their home World Cup only to lose for the second World Cup in a row to England in a semi-final.

This year Kidney will take to the Six Nations and know that when the team then travels to New Zealand the record there is not what it might be and similarly the team performances in the RWC is far from stunning. The Southern Hemisphere has never been a happy hunting ground for Irish sides.

The first World Cup in Australia came in a good year for Ireland, who finished just behind France in the 1987 Five Nations. The Irish team subsequently made it to the RWC quarter-finals, where they lost 33-15 to hosts Australia. The first Irish team to play in that inaugural RWC, against Wales, had just two changes from the team that finished the Five Nations some months earlier. From the start Ireland have stuck with tried and trusted.

In the South African World Cup in 1995 Ireland again lost 36-12, in the quarter-finals to France, coming off a fourth place in that year’s Six Nations, where just one win against Wales was Ireland’s lot.

The tournament moved back to Australia in 2003, England crowning the year with a 20-17 win against the hosts in Sydney off a Grand Slam win in Europe. Ireland that year were runners-up to England in the championship and hopeful. But again that form didn’t impact hugely on the World Cup, where just the French and English made it past the quarter-final stages.

Last autumn during the now traditional international series, Brian O’Driscoll voiced an opinion that probably spoke for many players in Kidney’s current squad.

“In the earlier years, it used be about playing for Ireland,” said the Irish captain. “Now it’s turned around to being winning for Ireland. Playing’s not good enough any more. You have to experience those good feelings, what’s it’s like in that changing room after winning a tough Test match. It’s a pretty sweet feeling.”

Whether that’s big talk coming into 2011 and towards the twilight of O’Driscoll’s storied career or acknowledgement that the six World Cups have not been hugely successful for Ireland regardless of the Six Nations campaign is a moot point.

On a broader European front, in 1987 France lost in the RWC final and Wales beat Australia for third place. In 1991 England lost in the final to Australia and Scotland made the third place play-off with New Zealand. In 1995 England lost to France in the third place play-off and in 1999 France lost in the final to Australia in Cardiff.

In 2003 England won the trophy, while France lost to New Zealand for third place and in 2007 it was another final for England, who came third in the Six Nations that year. It was also another third place play-off for France, which Argentina won 34-10.

Regardless of the Six Nations campaign early in a World Cup year, Ireland’s name has been conspicuously absent from the latter stages of the competition, with just France and England capably taking their form and style of play to the Australians, Springboks and New Zealanders.

This year Ireland’s form is difficult to call coming into February. If all the frontline players are healthy and back to the levels they played at a year ago there will be reason for optimism as both England and France come to Dublin.

But Irish coaches in the past have found out, as Kidney did this season, that when the team plays four Test matches in successive weeks, as they would in a World Cup pool, other factors come into play. Preparation, an ability to peak for a second time and player attrition will again be deciding factors when Ireland arrive in New Zealand and not their position in this year’s Six Nations Championship.

1987

FIVE NATIONS

1. France (Grand Slam)
2. Ireland
3. Scotland
4. Wales
5. England

RWC (Australia and NZ)

1. New Zealand
2. France
3. Wales
4. Australia
Quarter-finals: Ireland, England, Scotland

1991

FIVE NATIONS

1. England (Grand Slam)
2. France
3. Scotland
4. Ireland
5. Wales

RWC (Britain/Ireland/France)

1. Australia
2. England
3. New Zealand
4. Scotland
Quarter-finals: France, Ireland
Pool stages: Wales

1995

FIVE NATIONS

1. England (Grand Slam)
2. Scotland
3. France
4. Ireland
5. Wales

RWC (South Africa)

1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. France
4. England
Quarter-finals: Ireland, Scotland
Pool stages: Wales

1999

FIVE NATIONS

1. Scotland
2. England
3. Wales
4. Ireland
5. France

RWC (Britain/Ireland)

1. Australia
2. France
3. South Africa
4. New Zealand
Quarter-finals: Scotland, Wales, England
Pool stages: Ireland

2003

SIX NATIONS

1. England (Grand Slam)
2. Ireland
3. France
4. Scotland
5. Italy
6. Wales

RWC (Australia)

1. England
2. Australia
3. New Zealand
4. France
Quarter-finals: Scotland, Ireland, Wales
Pool stages: Italy

2007

SIX NATIONS

1. France
2. Ireland
3. England
4. Italy
5. Wales
6. Scotland

RWC (France)

1. South Africa
2. England
3. Argentina
4. France
Quarter-finals: Scotland
Pool stages: Ireland, Wales, Italy