Kerry have quality above and beyond most of what's out there. If they were to reproduce that for 70 minutes, they would win with plenty to spare, writes JOHN O'KEEFFE

THERE ARE so many imponderables to this final, but I think one that stands out immediately is this idea that Kerry have a big advantage over Dublin because they have so much more experience of playing in and winning All-Ireland finals. I wouldn’t be so sure. I remember a Kerry team being sent out by Mick O’Dwyer to play a well-fancied Dublin team in 1975 with only two men on it who had any experience of the big day. Kerry played with abandon that day and we won by seven points.

Experience guarantees you nothing, least of all a win in an All-Ireland final. If people think Dublin can be counted out just because this is their first crack at it, they’re mistaken. Finals are all about what happens on the day and not everyone performs to their optimum. If Dublin are to win, they need to believe deep down that they can do it. Belief can beat experience.

Dublin have come to this final through far more searching tests than Kerry. They’ve fought their way past Kildare and Donegal despite being down to 14 men at the end. They’ve blitzed Tyrone with 19 points from play. Kerry might have played the best football all year in the first 30 minutes against Cork but Dublin have put in the hard yards.

It is very noticeable too that Pat Gilroy has masterminded a low-key approach to the whole season. There isn’t the same level of hype around Dublin that was prevalent in other years. He has a team that plays to a game plan and every player obviously buys into it, a game plan that requires hard work and shows the character the Dublin players have. All in all, their preparation for this game couldn’t have gone much better.

Kerry, on the other hand, haven’t really had a big test apart from when Cork came back at them. The issue we have to work out is whether that is due to their own excellence or the fact they haven’t encountered a really serious challenge. On the basis of that opening half-hour against Cork, I would be inclined to think Kerry have quality above and beyond most of what’s out there. If they were to reproduce that for 70 minutes tomorrow, they would win with plenty to spare.

For that reason, Dublin can’t afford to let the game become a shoot-out. They can’t afford to be gung-ho in attack because they will leave too many gaps in behind them. They will have to set up with a defensive structure and the objective will be to keep things tight and close and work their way into the game. Dublin will get more confident the longer they stay in it. If they’re to win, they’ll need it to be a low-scoring game.

Kerry have the best forward unit in the game and Dublin’s chance will depend on how well they can shut them down. I fully expect Darran O’Sullivan’s lanes to the goal to be blocked off by Dublin bodies and there’s no doubt Cian O’Sullivan will have support any time he’s faced with having to deal with Colm Cooper. Dublin have very high fitness levels and their support for one another is very impressive. But to win the game, they won’t be able to just defend.

They know the key to winning will be how well they can support their attack. Bernard Brogan and Diarmuid Connolly won’t win the game on their own. Dublin will depend on turnover ball and will look to break at pace from the back line with supporting runners helping out. Getting the ball in quickly to Connolly and Brogan could pay dividends because the Kerry full-back line was definitely under pressure against Mayo when Andy Moran was fed early ball.

If Dublin can do the same for their inside line, Kerry could be in trouble. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eoin Brosnan dropping back a few yards from centre half-back just to give the Kerry full-back line a bit of cover and to cut down that space. In front of him, you can be sure Dublin will keep the intensity high at midfield. They have Ross McConnell and Eamon Fennel to come on if anyone is flagging. Kerry don’t have that kind of midfield cover, which is why I feel Jack O’Connor is totally right to hold Paul Galvin in reserve for those last 20-25 minutes when breaking ball around midfield will be so important.

In the end, I think Kerry have the better footballers overall. When it comes to decision-making in critical situations during the game, Kerry just have that little bit of extra know-how. It will be very close and Dublin won’t lie down or go away. But Kerry’s forwards have more game-winners in Cooper and the two O’Sullivans and I expect Kieran Donaghy to have his best game of the year. Whereas in the duels between Killian Young and Alan Brogan, Tom O’Sullivan and Diarmuid Connolly and Marc Ó Sé and Bernard Brogan, I can see the Kerry players coming out just ahead. Kerry by one or two points, but no more than that.