THE WEATHER is set fair, it’s a landmark day for Ireland’s greatest rugby player and the last two Grand Slam winners and bulk suppliers to the Lions go head to head again. Fasten the safety belts, this one is liable to ebb and flow more than most.
Both teams will have vengeful motivation, with Wales seeking to atone for last season’s home defeat and Ireland wanting to put to rights the defeat here to Wales two years ago. It’s clear, too, that the Ireland camp is slightly smarting from Welsh comments that they don’t fear going to Croke Park.
Likewise though, the apparently dismissive viewpoints of some Irish pundits has undoubtedly given Gatland and co ample ammunition to staple onto the walls of their team room.
A fixture that has produced just six home wins in the last 26 years underlines how this is perhaps the most curiously volatile Test match-up of modern times. While Wales could be coming here with zero points, they could also be coming here with three wins and it’s also worth noting that while five of this Ireland team started in the Lions’ Test series, seven of this Welsh line-up did.
Most of the Welsh coaching staff worked with 10 of this Ireland starting line-up on that tour and while the insider knowledge can work both ways, no doubt Messrs Gatland, Edwards and Howley will have some specially designed ploys for this Ireland team.
For example, one presumes Wales will employ their usually clever kicking game to greater effect today.
Peace having broken out this year, Declan Kidney yesterday described Gatland as “an excellent coach” whose “record speaks for itself”. Both records do. Between them Kidney and Gatland have won two Grand Slams, three Heineken Cups, a European Challenge Cup, an Under-20 World Cup, three English Premierships, an Air New Zealand Cup and more besides. There’s probably no two more decorated coaches in European rugby.
While the formguide makes Ireland marginal favourites, if the performances so far have taught us anything it is that Wales play catch-up better than Ireland or anyone else for that matter. Either way the start could be even more critical than normal.
While Wales will be acutely keen of the need to begin strongly for a change, not least on the scoreboard, and the sight of O’Driscoll leading the team out on this day is liable to be vividly memorable, likewise the early kick-off demands that the Irish team get the crowd into the match quickly.
“I suppose the 5 o’clock seems to suit the Irish that little bit more,” observed Kidney, before issuing a non-PC but fitting call to, eh, arms. “Everybody seems to be warmed up that little bit more before the match. Hopefully people will have an early start tomorrow morning. We’re no different to anyone else; getting that support is a huge uplift to a team, especially in tight games, like I imagine this one will be. The onus is on us to go out and do something but we’re going to need everybody; we’re going to need that 16th person.”
Whereas France were relatively structured in how they went about dissecting Ireland, Lee Byrne and his marauders will pose altogether different problems, especially off turnover ball and counter-attacks. While understandably wary of this, Ireland cannot be as cravenly unambitious as they were two years ago, nor as expansive as they were against the French. The performance in Twickenham was close to the perfect balance, even if Ireland didn’t have the confidence to always trust their instincts in the wake of the Parisian setback.
The apparent signals coming from the IRB to shift the emphasis at the breakdown – specifically by preventing the second man in to contest for the ball on the deck – and the presence of a South African referee for the second of three Ireland games in a row, is perhaps a bigger concern for Ireland.
With Gordon D’Arcy and O’Driscoll working in tandem with the Ireland backrow, winning turnovers at the breakdown has been a more obvious Ireland strength. By contrast, the more multi-phase attacks there are the more it is likely to suit Wales.
Paris and London were, in their contrasting ways, a timely reminder to Ireland they have to put the horse before the cart tactically, and also the collisions and the breakdown will, as ever, be key. With the wrecking ball that is Stephen Ferris to the fore, and Jamie Heaslip and David Wallace rolling up their sleeves, Ireland appear to have an edge here over a Welsh backrow denied Andy Powell and Ryan Jones, not to mention the incomparable work-rate and mobility for a prop of Gethin Jenkins.
In his 14-6 penalty count last week, Mark Lawrence also seemed to be positioning himself more on John Hayes’ side of the scrum. But while Ireland would settle for parity at the scrum, they have the superior lineout.
Furthermore, Tomás O’Leary has rediscovered his mojo and outside him there’s Jonathan Sexton’s youthful enthusiasm against Stephen Jones’s streetwise wiles. Beyond them lurk a host of intriguing, potentially game-breaking match-ups, not least the all-Ospreys Tommy Bowe-Shane Williams head-to-head.
In what might be a relatively high-scoring game, the lead might even change hands a few times. And if it’s true a two-week gap helped overcome the Parisian defeat, then by the same token this two-week hiatus may have interrupted Ireland’s momentum while allowing Wales to refocus.
But by kicking at the right times and by running at the right moments, Ireland have the forward weaponry to have the better of the possession and the territory, before striking stealthily again off set moves. In 1949 Ireland followed up their Grand Slam by losing to France but winning the Triple Crown.
Presuming the wounds of Paris are still raw enough to ensure there are again no weak links in the Ireland chain, that target may still be just about in focus come 4.10 or thereabouts.
Last five meetings: (2009) Wales 15 Ireland 17; (08) Ireland 12 Wales 16; (07) Wales 9 Ireland 19; (06) Ireland 31 Wales 5; (05) Wales 32 Ireland 20.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 1/4 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 3/1 Wales. Handicap Betting: 10/11 Ireland (-9), 20/1 Handicap draw, 10/11 Wales (+9).
Forecast: Ireland to win.
