Ireland must prune Thorn to beat the spread

It may not be our best XV but Ireland can target the All Blacks' lineout and play the game at their own pace, writes LIAM TOLAND

IRELAND WON the Grand Slam in 2009 having discovered their winning formula. The formula was built around kicking and rucking. Simplistic I know, as far more went into the clean sweep such as brilliant defence and lineout work.

This year began with an opener against Italy but tomorrow’s match was always a key fixture in the evolvement of Declan Kidney. Regardless of the outcome, we should not lose sight of the two ponderables, our best 15 and our best style.

With so many injuries our best 15 may have to wait but in the meantime the style can continue to evolve and with it a win tomorrow.

Kidney has been moving slowly away from this narrow style in introducing Rob Kearney and co to the ball. Last weekend with the pitch full of stars, Thomond Park was lit up on Tommy Bowe’s arrival, firstly the crowd and then the players. They have grown accustomed to his style, almost lazy but devastating in the counter and breaking the tackle. Watch his team-mates as they are attracted to him. It seems he can do everything. He must not be ignored.

What of his team-mates? Everyone remembers what Ireland achieved on tour with two Connacht players in the pack. But does anyone remember the last time the All Blacks were in New Plymouth? All Blacks 101-14 versus Samoa. It’s a 13-point spread so don’t worry. Sean Cronin is a class player with many talents, most notable amongst them his arrival on the tackled player’s shoulder. But he can also zero in on the ball-carrier like precious few.

All season long he has managed to add huge value to the ball with electric take-off pace and the sharpest of lines, not unlike his opposite man in Thomond Park last Friday night, Saracen Schalk Brits. His secret is riding the tackle on his terms. Many of his team-mates go to ground far too early, creating rucks but not Cronin.

The New Zealand lineout has struggled and will do so again and must be exposed when hard-fought opportunities present themselves, close to either line and those key off-the-top balls.

Cronin has a tendency to overthrow the lift which with Richie McCaw loitering can be very dangerous, especially close to home. Therefore I expect short lineouts close in to afford Cronin the best targets. His instinct will get him on the ball, but he must prioritise precision at the lineout.

John Muldoon rightly deserves his promotion, where we know exactly what we’ll get from him. Last week I was struck by his work-rate at the coal face and tomorrow will be no different. However he has big shoes to fill. International-level players require strength, speed, skills and an excellence in their chosen position. In Thomond Park, Alan Quinlan’s display separated class from world class.

I recall another number six, long-forgotten by the rugby public no doubt. Ken O’Connell togged out for Munster when the All Blacks arrived into Musgrave Park way back in 1989. He was two years out of school. Buck Shelford led the World Champions to a 31-9 victory. He also signalled O’Connell for special praise and attention as the latter eventually departed concussed. Tomorrow Muldoon must be every bit O’Connell as we know he can muster.

New Zealand have their injuries too but McCaw and Dan Carter are clearly the threat. However it is Brad Thorn that worries me. No lineout excellence, which Donncha O’Callaghan and especially Mick O’Driscoll should exploit, but his physicality can’t be matched by our front five in open play or the scrum so our style must keep him away from the ball.

One way to keep the All Blacks from flowing was also a major building block in the Grand Slam; David Wallace, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy’s ability to tackle the player and attack the ball at the same time. The world has moved on since then and, as Wallace discovered in Croke Park, a skill that has taken years to hone is banished to 2009. What will the Irish do to counter this loss?

The All Blacks are no super specimens. Professional rugby has allowed Irish rugby to catch up. The only real difference is their playing numbers and their uncanny ability to lift the pace by breaking tackles and offloading. We have players that do this but not all 15. Over the seasons the Irish have balanced the books by targeting the ball- carrier as he arrives to deck.

Now a new form of slowing down will be needed. This time it will be the double team. I expect the Irish to keep the ball-carrier off the deck and target the ball in the air. This of course is legal and will slow the recycle. The danger remains an early offload into the hole behind him.

Ireland’s tactics brings us nicely to the match referee, Wayne Barnes. The scrum and breakdown will be where his influence will dictate. Everyone remembers the famous ‘forward’ pass that Barnes missed that put New Zealand out of the RWC. But do you remember the unbelievably solid French scrum that provided the platform for Frédéric Michalak’s moment of genius?

Barnes can do only so much and with 26-year-old Ben Franks making his debut at loosehead it gives John Hayes a target.

Ronan O’Gara gets the nod over Johnny Sexton. The consolation for Sexton is a gentle run out against the Maoris during the week. With a very young and inexperienced Hawke’s Bay Israel Dagg at fullback and Josevata Rokocoko and Cory Jane alongside him, O’Gara’s wise old head and game management will prove very fruitful in punishing their back three. His accuracy from the placed ball will, no doubt, add further question marks over the fixture. But we can’t move away from his defence.

They will attack his channel as before and they will have seen, as late as the Baa Baas fixture, how when without the heavy artillery on his flanks he simply hasn’t the physique to stop any of the All Blacks. All it takes is one missed tackle.

Ireland; lineout, New Zealand; scrum but with 175 breakdowns a match the ruck will always remain key. Come on Wayne Barnes.

If the Irish front five prune Thorn that 13-point spread can be beaten.