ONCE AGAIN, a nation not only expects but demands a win in what seems to be the only source of good news around.
And the only source of cash as well. Though English fans appeared to adopt a decidedly low profile two years ago, a survey from that fixture showed that the economic impact for the local economy was in the region of €80-90 million. And, of course, the feel-good factor from a win can scarcely be measured.
Ireland is not unique, and similar noises about lifting the prevailing gloom had been emanating from the Welsh camp – until last night.
But when all this was put in the context of 30 variously shaped men chasing after a pumped up piece of leather as the forecast rain clouds converge on Jones Road, coach Declan Kidney understandably drew a sharp intake of breath. “No pressure then,” he said, smiling wryly.
“If we were to say that our desire to win tomorrow was greater than before, that would belie any team that has gone before us,” he added. “I think we’re very conscious that we’re a representative side. We want to do that to the best of our ability.
“Pressure? Not really, I think this is a good place to live. We have a great sporting public in Ireland. People know that once we give it everything we have, they’ll go with us. That’s where the pressure comes from – to be as good as we can be.”
Kidney and captain Brian O’Driscoll cut relaxed figures at their eve-of-match press conference, as did all in the Irish camp later as they mucked around with a Gaelic football on the hallowed turf. If there is pressure there, and from the outside it would appear to be enormous, then, like two years ago, it isn’t showing.
Even a question regarding his insight into England coach Martin Johnson drew an Eric Cantona-like pearl from the Irish captain.
“Knowledge is knowing tomato is a fruit; wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad,” said O’Driscoll. Perhaps one he washed and prepared earlier?
As for the pre-match stand-off in 2003, when Johnson refused to swap ends for the presidential greeting, O’Driscoll commented: “It began as an accident but he stood up for what he felt. You have got to respect that.”
Indeed the World Cup-winning force of nature demands respect. “He wants to win every place he goes when he’s involved in a team,” said O’Driscoll. “He’ll bring the best out of his team because of that.”
Wales’ win over England was a reminder of how much the Celts like to beat England, but also perhaps how uncomfortable they are when in the more rarified air of favourites. It also showed that Johnson, one of the shrewdest rugby brains around, is perhaps starting to design a team in his own obdurate image.
Not only did the weight of history bear down heavily on the fixture two years ago, when England appeared to be taking on far more than 15 rugby players, this time the Red Rose will be altogether more settled and better prepared. The return of Joe Worsley has solidified Mike Ford’s defence, and this England looks designed to frustrate the home side for long stretches with a relatively structured, spoiling and bruising game.
There’s plenty of prime beef in the pack, they have a strong scrum and five big men to launch in the air, including Nick Kennedy, an excellent lineout operator who specialises in nicking opposition ball.
Yet England’s confidence must be relatively brittle given five defeats in their last seven Test outings.
As with the win over France, Ireland will require an excellent, all-round team performance to prevail, with Ronan O’Gara a pivotal figure. Though not perceived to be on top of his game in the opening two matches, this is perhaps down to the extra box-kicking load assumed by Tomás O’Leary.
Even so, each time O’Gara came through strongly and the occasion of his 90th Test is primed for him. He is within 11 points of overtaking Jonny Wilkinson’s all-time championship record of 479 points, and of reaching 900 Test points.
He may well be asked to play a territorial game, at least early on.
Although England’s countering threat would not appear to be in France’s league, either way, Ireland’s kicking game has to clear England’s back three or have enough air to apply more pressure than in the championship opener.
Coupled with pressure on the scoreboard, without a Danny Cipriani-like figure even on their bench, England do not appear well disposed toward playing catch-up. Alternatively, were they to build a lead it could be a fraught and taut night.
Ireland’s accuracy in the setpiece has been a bedrock of the two wins to date. It perhaps faces its toughest test, and Ireland perhaps do not thrive in a war of attrition.
That is England’s domain, though the ELVs and the crackdown at the breakdown weren’t only with a team in red in mind, but also one in all white. The laws make it harder for a team to stuff the ball up their jumpers or keep it tight with pick-and-go until some bloke called Jonny is worked to within three-point range.
With a pacier, more dynamic backrow, Ireland also look more capable of playing at a higher tempo, of launching O’Driscoll at the English midfield or bringing Rob Kearney into the line from quick-off-the-top ball, or from a few rapid, quick-fire phases.
Therein may lie the key: Ireland’s ability to generate quick ball. And it could be that Peter Stringer and Gordon D’Arcy will ultimately play key roles.
You suspect that the team with more variety and tempo to their game, and who are perhaps fractionally more assured in what they are doing, will get there in the end, but it’s liable to be a bruiser.
Bring it on, 80 minutes of fun and games.
Overall head-to-head: Played 121. England 70 wins, Ireland 43 wins, 8 draws.
Last five meetings: (2008) England 33 Ireland 10 (Twickenham); (2007) Ireland 43 England 13 (Croke Park); (2006) England 24 Ireland 28 (Twickenham); (2005) Ireland 19 England 13 (Lansdowne Road); (2004) England 13 Ireland 19 (Twickenham).
Leading points scorers: Ireland - Ronan O’Gara 26. England - Andy Goode 19.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/3 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 11/4 England. Handicap odds (= England + 8pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 England.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
