ON RUGBY:AS HEINEKEN Cup weekends go, that was quite unusual. Although eight of the dozen games were won by the home side, most unusually in all bar two of the games (Biarritz's stunning defeat to Aironi and Perpignan's five-point win against Leicester) anyone backing the away side on the handicap betting with the bookies would have come out on top.
Toulouse were the biggest winners of the weekend when beating Glasgow in Firhill on Friday night, and this set a trend as Racing Metro and Toulon defied their odds as six-point underdogs to actually win away to Saracens and London Irish. Apart from Glasgow, the only sides who didn’t obtain losing bonus points were Treviso and Cardiff, who lost by eight points at the Scarlets and Northampton. All other nine losers extracted bonus points, which was a record for the competition and confirms the impression that this is the most competitive Heineken Cup ever.
Consider the previous record was set in the first round of this season’s competition when seven of the dozen games ended within the seven-point margin needed for a losing bonus point. In the previous 42 Pool rounds over the last seven seasons the most losing bonus points secured in a round were six on four occasions (round two 09/10; rounds four and six 08/09; round three 04/05).
Across the 12 games over the opening weekend there was only a points difference of 96 between the winning and losing teams, an average gap of only eight points per match, whereas last weekend the aggregate was 76 points, for an average gap of only six points.
This may suggest home advantage has ceased to be quite the factor it has historically been, perhaps in part because referees have become stronger in resisting baying home crowds – that could certainly be said of Wayne Barnes in Stade Marcel Michelin and Christophe Berdos in Thomond Park.
Then again, maybe, there’ll be a backlash next weekend. It’s conceivable, to begin with, that having beaten them away, Toulon and Racing will duly complete doubles over Saracens (now out of the running) and London Irish, who virtually are.
In a sense, both Munster and Leinster have been unfortunate in that they were the first visitors to Saracens and London Irish, for whom the visit of the Irish heavyweights were marquee games at Wembley and the Madejski Stadium. Munster and Leinster took their best shots, whereas the former’s bonus-point defeat is starting to look like lost ground, while neither Racing nor Clermont will be taken to Wembley against a Sarries team still in contention.
For France it was a productive weekend yielding six wins out of seven, and you could have made up your own odds on Biarritz (the weekend’s biggest favourites at minus 14 points) being the only losers against an Aironi franchise without a win of any hue since their close-season foundation.
That has opened the door for Ulster, for whom three successive wins will almost certainly see them progress. The key will be completing the double over Bath next Saturday at the Rec, as they did last season. Admittedly, that was a dead rubber for Bath, but it has at least removed the monkey from Ulster’s backs of a first win on English soil in a dozen attempts. By the by, has one player ever quite bestrode a match in the manner Stephen Ferris did? It was Paul O’Connellesque.
Other away sides will again travel in hope next weekend, not least Clermont and Munster when they go to the Aviva and the Liberty Stadiums next Saturday. Leinster’s was arguably the Irish performance of the weekend, given they were without three Lions and had a squad containing eight non-internationals compared to just one for Clermont – Brock James.
As heartening as anything was their courage, both physically in the contact area, and also in possession, with their willingness to have a go with the ball. Clermont’s “rep” counted for nothing, and to imbue his side with these attributes was a credit to Joe Schmidt and the team leaders. Particularly encouraging was so many home grown tyros led the way, be it Eoin O’Malley’s dancing feet, Fergus McFadden’s pack, Dominic Ryan’s ball-and-all try-saving tackle on Julien Malzieu, Seán O’Brien’s ball-carrying or Jonathan Sexton’s composure, goalkicking and unstinting tackling.
But the job is not even half done, for beating Clermont at home will be even harder.
The French side have already stated that their whole season hinges on next Saturday’s game, and history shows us that having beaten Clermont away eight seasons ago, Leinster had to withstand a brutally punishing return to win 12-9 at Donnybrook a week later; not to mention last season’s epic quarter-final win by 29-28.
Remember, too, that Michael Cheika wouldn’t countenance switching last season’s quarter-final from the RDS, admittedly when only Croke Park was available as a bigger venue, as he felt it would disadvantage Leinster’s chances of winning. The point being that were next Saturday’s game in the RDS it would be more to Leinster’s benefit.
History has also shown us Munster have often been written off after the third round (and earlier and later come to think of it) only to confound the sceptics, sometimes within the week. Recall their edgy 24-23 win over Perpignan at home last season, when outscored by three tries to nil, and how one respected pundit, who should have known better, forecast that the end was nigh on the eve of the return match at Stade Aime Giral the following week. Cue a bonus point win and yet more dollops of humble pie for some.
Yes, it looks like they missed a trick by failing to beat London Irish on the opening weekend and certainly in not pressing home their advantage against the Ospreys, who still haven’t cut loose this season, are missing Shane Williams’ flair for the unexpected. Toulon’s win does make the trek to that hotbed on the penultimate weekend look even more daunting, and they now need at least one if not two away wins.
The further repercussions of Paul O’Connell’s red card may further affect them, but they’re good enough to overcome such setbacks and come on significantly for last week’s outing.
