SHOULD I'm Supposin wind the Irish Racing Writers Novice Hurdle at Naas this afternoon in anything approaching impressive style, his odds for the Champion Hurdle, already less than generous, are sure to tighten dramatically.
Doubts about the fitness of the current champion, Collier Bay, combined with the retirement of Alderbrook and the failure of the AIG Europe Irish Champion Hurdle to throw up a serious contender, means that the market for the big Cheltenham race is extremely volatile.
Alderbrook, two years ago, exploded the myth that a horse needs plenty of experience over jumps before being asked to become a champion hurdler, when taking the coveted prize with only two previous runs under his belt. Like Alderbrook, I'm Supposin was well above average on the Flat
But whether the opposition today is of a quality to make this event a major trial is questionable. While both Finnegan's Hollow and Graphic Equaliser are horses of considerable potential, nothing less than an authoritative win for I'm Supposin should be sufficient to keep the Cheltenham dream alive.
Four horses who contested The Labroke now turn out for the Celbridge Handicap Hurdle. Metastasio, who finished fifth despite his rider losing an iron at one stage, looks the pick of the quartet. However, the Leopardstown race is invariably run at a furious pace and horses sometimes take a considerable time to recover from it. So, in the circumstances, it might be worth taking a chance with the novice, Yelapa Prince, who won over two and a half miles here back in November.
Ultra Flutter appears to have recovered the form he showed over fences two years ago. The step up to three miles in the Naas Novice Chase should be to his liking and he should outstay Le Ginno and Amble Speedy.
Brass Band's display at Punchestown, where she dropped out tamely after early prominence, was a considerable disappointment after her good run at Navan when third to Blaze Of Honour. Back on a more galloping track, she may be worth taking a chance with at attractive odds against the Fairyhouse third, Eoin's Orchestra in the Naas Maiden Hurdle.
