Home truth about the weakened Wallabies

Gerry Thornley/On Rugby: Remember the 1999 World Cup pool match between would-be champions Australia and Ireland at Lansdowne Road, when some of us misguidedly nurtured hopes that it might emulate the classic quarter-final of 1991 between the same pair at the same venue?

It never did of course, an experienced Wallaby side strangling the life out of the opposition and the game, much as they did in going on to win the tournament. Of the 15 head-to-head match-ups in the starting line-up four years ago, the Wallabies were more experienced campaigners (often vastly so) in all but two positions; Paddy Johns v David Giffin in the second row, and Trevor Brennan over the slightly less exposed Mark Connors at blindside flanker.

The Wallabies will have nothing like the same advantage in test match experience and savvy when the sides meet again in Melbourne on November 1st this time around. Whereas Ireland went into that competition with a dozen players who'd played less than 10 test matches, this time they've only four. Declan Kidney expressed satisfaction about the profile of the Irish squad when it was announced last Sunday, noting that the age profile was slightly higher among the forwards, which is what you want. And whereas Ireland have nine survivors from four years ago, Australia have 10.

That Australia don't have an 11th, in the shape of Owen Finegan, was Eddie Jones's decision, and much like David Wallace's omission from the Irish squad, Finegan's exclusion has been the main talking point Down Under. The Australian flankerwas an impact replacement that day in Lansdowne Road four years ago, when Toutai Kefu was the side's main ball-carrier from the off, and they also had Jim Williams in reserve.

All those big men and wily campaigners are gone now, with the loss of Kefu due to a cracked shoulder blade a huge blow to the defending champions and hosts. As the other aforementioned back row men dropped off through the season and Finegan was sidelined for much of the year with the damaged shoulder he sustained at Lansdowne Road last autumn, so the onus on Kefu alongside two opensides, Phil Waugh and George Smith, as the pack's primary ball-carrier intensified.

Australia's most-capped number eight of all time, with 10 tries in his 60 tests, Kefu's barnstorming try last year to pinch the Bledisloe Cup from the All Blacks with virtually the last play underlined his value to the Wallabies and their multi-phase game. In Kefu's absence there seems no natural alternative to him. Even allowing for Finegan looking slower and off the pace since inching his way back as a replacement in this summer's Tri-Nations, it made his exclusion from the 30-man squad all the more surprising.

With the retirement of John Eales and Phil Kearns, the Wallaby tight five wouldn't particularly frighten any of their frontline rivals in the World Cup, and now their ball-carrying ability in the back row looks seriously undermined.

Indeed, no less than Geordan Murphy being denied the chance to parade his abilities on the global stage, so Kefu's absence is just as cruel. Even one's immediate thought that Kefu's injury would weaken one of Ireland's two main pool rivals was quickly overtaken by the thought that all the best players should be playing in the World Cup. At 29, the Japan-bound Kefu will almost certainly never have the chance to play in a World Cup again.

"There are some people you just don't want to lose and Toutai is one of them," said Jones, who, like Eddie O'Sullivan when discussing Murphy's injury on Saturday, used the word "tragic".

In Kefu's absence, David Lyons looks the likeliest replacement in the middle of the back row, although the Australian management have in the past let it be known that they are not happy with his work rate. Lyons is one of six back row players in the squad, three of whom would be regarded as opensides - Smith, Waugh and David Croft, while the versatile Queenslander John Roe is uncapped.

So too the prop Matt Dunning, who has been selected ahead of the omitted, Argentinian-born veteran Patricio Noriega. Jones has used home advantage to select only two specialist hookers, with uncapped prop Matt Dunning providing cover. Dunning is the side-stepping, auxiliary back who decided to land a drop goal 10 minutes from time with his New South Wales Waratahs team two tries short of a bonus point in their last Super 12 game - and they missed out on the semi-finals by a point.

The Pumas will be licking their lips if he plays, and could well do a number on the Wallabies up front in the opening match of the tournament on Friday, October 10th. Unlike four years ago, Australia might not have the same talent but there doesn't seem to have been as much advance planning either. Why weren't Roe, Dunning and others used instead of weary frontliners on the Wallabies' European tour last autumn, as John Mitchell did with the All Blacks? However, Jones has experience and game-breakers aplenty in the backs, especially with the return of Joe Roff, although what combinations will be used and how effective they'll be remains to be seen.

The Wallabies look more vulnerable than four years ago. Nevertheless, much like George Gregan's supposed loss of form, one takes reports of their impending demise warily. Memories of their off-field tactics and the way their PR machine rolled into action on the Lions tour are too fresh.

A sequence of presumably well-planned public statements by Bob Dwyer, Jones himself and others, through a willing media, were designed to influence referees. Yellow binliners adorned home supporters and empty seats, while thousands of opposing fans were coralled into the darkest and remotest upper regions of Stadium Australia for the final test.

Wait 'til ya see, opponents will be demonised as patriotic fervour is whipped up again. They'll make the absolute most of home advantage.

gthornley@irish-times