We could be looking at the All-Ireland champions ending their defence in mid-May. In Thurles on Saturday evening, Tipperary will face up to Clare, their predecessors as champions and as early fallers – if that’s the fate awaiting Liam Cahill’s team.
Clare were onlookers a year ago when that happened and at least Tipp will get to decide the issue on the pitch.
Their problem is that the jeopardy doesn’t cut both ways. The point they dropped after Kevin Mahony’s late goal in Walsh Park leaves Tipp at a disadvantage to Clare, who beat Waterford and whose last match is against a Cork team already likely to be in the Munster final.
I’m sure Cork will have plenty of players on the panel who haven’t played much so far and you’d imagine would be the ideal opportunity to give them game time. Hard to blame Ben O’Connor if he chose to do that.
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Tipperary have to go to Limerick for their last match, a fixture that has not gone well for them this decade.
So, how are the teams placed, coming into Thurles? Tipp are in the same position as last year except then, they had played both Limerick and Cork. In Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they were down to 14 for the whole 70 minutes but although well beaten, didn’t throw in the towel.
The fightback to draw with Limerick was also a big performance and it was rumoured John Kiely’s team found it the most intense match of the round robin. The question is whether Tipp can get to that level again.
This fixture 12 months ago in Ennis was a turning point. Tipperary dug it out at the finish and showed finishing power down the straight. In racing terms, they were hitting the line well, showing good desire, intensity to the end and a very good first touch.
‘Intensity’ gets bandied around to the point where it no longer means anything but you see it in how focused a team stays throughout a game. Are they pressing as hard in the 65th minute as they were in the fifth? Are they relentless – always snapping at the opposition with no let-up?
After Ennis last year, it was onwards and upwards for Tipp – all the way to the All-Ireland.
In Walsh Park two weeks ago, the touch that was so pure last year was back. There was none of the uncertainty from the first match against Cork and the fumbling and spilling of possession. That improvement came with more efficient scoring – the clean touch and crispness in finishing chances.
In the first half.
After half-time, it was a different story. A significant number of Tipperary players fell back from the previous high level, as Waterford responded. It was impressive that they managed to survive the momentum shift, re-take the lead and only get caught by a last-minute goal. But the fact was they lost an 11-point half-time lead even allowing for what was a significant breeze.
So which half is the outlier? If the first half becomes the dominant pattern, Tipp are All-Ireland contenders. If it’s the second half, they probably won’t qualify.
Clare too will be wondering which was their outlier: the non-performance against Limerick or the scoring machine that beat Waterford.
I am a bit pessimistic for them because they had always been hugely competitive with Limerick during the Brian Lohan years. Like Tipp playing Cork, Clare’s touch was all over the place and alarmingly, that included top hurlers Shane O’Donnell and Tony Kelly.
I do think the challenge by Diarmaid Byrnes on O’Donnell had an impact. Clare became agitated at not getting a free and lost their composure, leading to a yellow card for O’Donnell himself shortly afterwards. They were eight behind at that stage and needed a massive response, which never looked likely.
As well as their struggles to find rhythm, they couldn’t retain possession. Peter Duggan won his share of ball but they weren’t able to make much out of it. Ronan Maher is playing well and I imagine will mark Duggan.
Lohan will be hoping the last round was an outlier and like Cork last year, they can bounce back from a big defeat and challenge for Munster.
There is a strange premium for away teams in this fixture during the round-robin era. Tipp have won every match in Ennis and lost the three times the counties have played in Thurles.
The space suits Clare but they haven’t been at full strength and with John Conlon now more of a bench option, the full-back line isn’t getting the same protection and the forwards aren’t getting front-foot deliveries from the half backs. Even though Niall O’Farrell has been decent at centre back, Conlon’s strength and experience aren’t easily replaced.
David McInerney’s absence was also felt and although he didn’t make a big impact off the bench against Limerick, he’ll be better for the game time. But he and Conlon were major personalities in winning the All-Ireland and so was David Fitzgerald, now injured.
I think Tipperary’s first half in Walsh Park will prove less of an outlier than Clare’s difficulties and they should win but it will still be an anxious last weekend for Liam Cahill.
