I came out of the Saturday semi-final, having watched an improved Limerick dominate Galway and firmly of the belief that it didn’t really matter who was going to win between Kilkenny and Clare. In the interim, my views haven’t changed fundamentally but the closer the final gets, the more inclined I am to give Kilkenny a chance.
This is not because of the mild superstition that has hung around them in the past decade or so – that they are Kilkenny – but for more concrete reasons. Based on their form this year and Limerick’s, there are questions about maximum score capacity and who delivers it more consistently.
Even allowing for the anomalies of Leinster, Kilkenny have put up big scores on a consistent basis. From the last group match against Wexford, they have scored 5-18, 4-21 and 1-25 in the last three matches.
Limerick’s equivalent run is 0-25, 1-23 and 2-24. Only in the most recent match, the All-Ireland semi-final have they reached a total of 0-30. There are actually two opponents in common in these matches so the comparisons aren’t entirely off the wall.
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Back in the league final between the counties Kilkenny could only manage 15 scores and Limerick hit a huge amount of wides – 15 in the second half alone – and still hammered them. TJ Reid wasn’t playing but even so the disparity looked frightening.
It’s easy to slip into Kilkenny doing what it says on the tin: a block-down and point from Adrian Mullen in the semi-final, that block by Conor Fogarty on Mark Rodgers, in the Leinster final when the game was up, all that pressure on Cooney and McInerney in the Davin corner to turn the ball over – all of that is a given.
But what gives them the best chance in this game is for me – their efficiency. They only had five wides against Clare and we can be sure that TJ will score all his frees. Mullen is back and he’s incredibly accurate and you have Eoin Cody, who will take a bit of marking and there’s no Seán Finn to do it and no Declan Hannon to cover in front.
You can easily see how Kilkenny can creep towards 30 points. Look at last year’s final and they got to 32 with Limerick getting to 34. That’s why I’m ignoring the traditional, it’s Kilkenny in an All-Ireland final stuff.
It’s not necessarily top of the range sports science but the scoring patterns are important and Limerick apart from the Cork match in Munster and the All-Ireland semi-final, aren’t hitting the 30-point mark. Their default average is around 25 or 26.
As previously discussed, the difference between them at 0-25 and 0-30 has been the scoring contributions of Gearóid Hegarty, Cian Lynch and Peter Casey. Hegarty on his own scored 1-5 in last year’s final. Lynch was injured and Casey was only back from a cruciate.
In the semi-final they totalled 0-5, which makes up the shortfall after a year when they have all had issues of form. If two weeks ago marked a new departure for them, Limerick should be scoring sufficiently.
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A lot depends on their form and can they maintain that trend of improvement. So far there has been a reliance on Aaron Gillane to get the scores and with Huw Lawlor having the physical attributes and the discipline to mark him, what scores can Limerick count on there?
In recent years no team has been as good as Limerick in improving in Croke Park. They learned a lot from 2019 when Kilkenny turned them over. They blitzed Tipperary in the Munster final and wandered into the All-Ireland semi-final unprepared for the physical blitz launched by Conor Browne and John Donnelly and got knocked out of their stride.
They still look back on that as the sharpest lesson they learned. Their handling of Kilkenny last year showed that and also how they have learned to time their run.
They are worthy favourites but will have to play up to their season’s best to overcome Kilkenny and their proven scoring potential, Reid, Cody even Billy Ryan if he gets a run on them. So Limerick need to be wary.
What holds it together for them is their middle third, which has been super for them all year. Even Will O’Donoghue was able to drop back and replace Declan Hannon the last day, releasing Cian Lynch to midfield.
That drive from numbers five to nine with Tom Morrissey to throw into the middle, that engine room for Limerick is unsurpassed.
To score, even Kilkenny need to get the ball. There were times against Clare when they couldn’t and ultimately Clare, who had every chance after a poor first half, lost out to their own errors – helped along of course by Kilkenny’s work rate but errors all the same.
Forced to go long against Clare, they struggled to get possession even after bringing on Walter Walsh. Kilkenny can operate on a smaller possession count but not a fractional one. That’s where Limerick have been able to choke teams in recent years.
Darragh O’Donovan has been in excellent form so far, Will O’Donoghue is tremendously consistent, the half-back line has been outstanding, Tom Morrissey is having his best year yet and Cian Lynch looked restored in the semi-final and is now captain to boot.
It’s a lot of power and it can swing the balance of this match for all of Kilkenny’s shooting efficiency.
