A feature of this year's various "Cheltenham Nights" on the run up to the festival were the widespread guffaws that greeted any suggestion of Florida Pearl holding a serious chance in today's Tote Gold Cup. A feature of the acres of newsprint devoted to steeplechasing's blue riband has been the widespread rubbishing of Florida Pearl's claims to having sufficient stamina and/or guts to cope with the Cheltenham hill or the best of the British opposition.
Soft horse, finds nothing off the bridle, doesn't stay, stays alright but too slowly, has beaten nothing except Dorans Pride and what's he now, last year was his year: They've all been said.
It might just be worth betting that crow will be on a lot of menus tonight. Admittedly Florida Pearl is the type of horse that polarises opinion but lets get one argument straight. Last year was not Florida Pearl's year. If it had been, Willie Mullins's horses would not have hit a dip in form at just the wrong time and Florida Pearl would not have pulled a back muscle on the morning of the race.
From the first fence it was clear the hugely hyped favourite was not fully right. Instead of racing on the bridle as he usually does, he was constantly niggled by Richard Dunwoody to keep a position and ultimately put in a fine effort to finish third to See More Business and Go Ballistic.
"He was wrong last year and I think he actually did very well to finish third," Willie Mullins said yesterday as he maintained his stance that Paul Carberry will be on board Florida Pearl again despite not having ridden since the first race on Tuesday.
So to the stamina question. A less than right Florida Pearl made the Gold Cup frame last year and won the SunAlliance the year before when he repeated his tendency to idle once hitting the front. Mullins and Carberry have no doubts about stamina and winning the Hennessy again on the soft seems to have confirmed their view.
That leaves supposed question marks over courage and class but a year after he was supposed to have confirmed himself the new Arkle, the 2,000 version of Florida Pearl looks a very attractive bet to pick up jump racing's greatest prize.
For one thing, the ground is now verging on good to firm. Will that suit last year's hero See More Business, attempting to become first double winner since L'Escargot (1970-71)? Considering his best performance was in the second of his King George's on the soft, it's doubtful.
The novice Gloria Victis will have to be truly exceptional to make all here in the style of the Racing Post Trophy, plus he too is proven only on the soft. That's one comment that shouldn't apply to Looks Like Trouble but what exactly happened to him in the King George? No one knows.
In contrast we know Florida Pearl will love the fast ground, we know he has the latent speed to comfortably lie just off any ferocious gallop set by Gloria Victis and others and then quicken, we know that he is in A1 shape and we know he is better than the bare Hennessy form suggests.
We can't be sure about Carberry's back but we can be reasonably certain that the unhyped Florida Pearl, at about 8 to 1, is the value bet.
Forecast
Florida Pearl - 1, Looks Like Trouble - 2, See More Business - 3
