What chance would you give a side that still relies on a 39-year-old to shore up the defence, that dropped five points in games against Turkey during its qualifying run, that also changed manager in midcourse and whose biggest surprise when it named its Euro 2000 squad was the inclusion of a 34-year-old midfielder who had been out of the side for two seasons?

Add to that the observation that star players have opted to watch Euro 2000 at home on TV, that the national federation sacked the deputy manager less than two months before the tournament because of his critical comments about the side, and that the team manager himself is a 63-year-old who was perhaps the federation's eighth choice.

It all adds up to a pretty glum picture. This is surely a side destined for a speedy, end-of-first-round return home. The side, however, is Germany, reigning European champions and a side that in the last 20 years has made it to six out of 10 finals, be it World Cup or European Championship.

Soccer history, if nothing else, reminds us all too emphatically that it is dangerous to write off Germany.

Not for nothing, the German captain Oliver Bierhoff has made repeated reference to his country's outstanding track record when assessing Germany's chances at Euro 2000.

"This is a difficult moment for us, but I get the impression that other traditionally strong countries are in difficulty, too," said Bierhoff recently. "Look at Italy, they're not playing well while both England and France struggled in the qualifying round.

"I'm still optimistic. In England in 1996, people didn't think much of us and we still won the tournament. I'm ready to bet on Germany because when it comes to a big tournament we Germans are good at pulling it out, we rarely get it wrong on the big occasions".

Bierhoff's battle cry reads like a tired, old cliche. Yet, if he did not trot out this particular cliche, he might find it hard to find anything else to support his belief that Germany will make it to the final (where, by the way, he expects them to meet Holland).

Certainly, since the Euro '96 win, Germany have fallen well short of the glittering standards set by previous German teams, whose combination of unshakeable self-belief, athletic power and technical excellence made them seem at times irresistible.

At the World Cup in France, though, Germany were far from irresistible, going out 3-0 to Croatia at the quarter-final stage in their heaviest defeat for 30 years.

Three months later, that loss cost then coach Berti Vogts his job. Arguing that the negative attitude to him was damaging the national team, Vogts resigned in order, as he put it, "to preserve any remnants of dignity left to me".

In an indication of how times have changed in Germany, the Deutsche Fussball Bund (DFB) found it surprisingly hard to find a replacement.

Allegedly no less than seven coaches, including Ottmar Hitzfeld, Paul Breitner and Englishman Roy Hodgson, all turned them down before former Bayern Munich coach Erich Ribbeck finally accepted.

Commenting on the fact that the DFB had appointed former Real Madrid and German international Uli Stielike as his number two, Ribbeck hardly inspired confidence for the German Euro 2000 campaign when saying: "I'm getting on a bit and can't go out running round the pitch anymore, can I? So Uli will help me in that regard."

Ribbeck was brought in on the eve of Germany's opening Euro 2000 qualifier. Without much time to prepare, he turned to players tried and true.

Within half an hour of being appointed, he had recalled the Golden Oldie himself, Lothar Matthaus. Given that one of the most frequent accusations made against Vogts had been his all too apparent failure to implement a generational change, the recall of Matthaus hardly seemed like a good start.

Significantly, though, Matthaus is still there, marshalling the defence at the ripe old age of 39.

In the end Matthaus had to drop out of that clash with Turkey in October 1998 and his absence was felt as Germany opened their campaign with a historic 1-0 defeat in Bursa, a city all too painfully familiar to Irish fans.

In a group which also involved Finland, Northern Ireland and Moldavia, the Turks provided the only real threat to Germany, forcing them all the way to the wire with a final 0-0 draw in Germany last October in which the home side had plenty reason to be grateful to Bayern Munich goalkeeper Oliver Kahn.

In the end, too, Ribbeck has created a settled side that has key elements, with Kahn in goal, Matthaus, Markus Babbel and Thomas Linke in defence, Jens Jeremies, Mehmet Scholl and Christian Ziege in midfield and with Bierhoff in attack. Significantly, though, the average age of the above mentioned eight players is 30 plus.

Significantly, too, Germany's progress under Ribbeck has earned all manner of critical disapproval with many calling for him to resign.

Stefan Effenberg, the dissident Bayern star, has advised him to watch a few videotapes of how Bayern won this year's Bundesliga title (on the very last day from Bayer Leverkusen).

Effenberg will be watching Euro 2000 on TV, given that he has opted to follow in a long line of talented German dissidents (Schuster, Breitner etc) who declined to line out for the national team.

Ribbeck probably expected his fair share of media criticism, but he seems to have drawn the line when his number two Stielike joined in the chorus of those who complained about the static, dull and all too predictable German play.

After Stielike's most recent critical outbursts, in the wake of a friendly defeat by Holland in February and an unimpressive 11 draw home draw with Switzerland in April, Ribbeck called for his head, having him off-loaded and replaced by former striker Horst Hrubesch.

Even regular team players such as Jeremies and Babbel have been making negative noises. Jeremies recently described Germany's form as "pitiful", while Babbel has admitted to his worry about the lack of good team morale.

"Four years ago, we had people like Jurgen Klinsmann, Matthias Sammer, Thomas Helmer and Andy Kopke - players who could pull the team together . . . Now, we only have individualists. It's hard to see anyone who can make us believe in ourselves. There's no fire in the team," said Babbel.

Nor have Germany's preparations been helped by the injury that ruled out Borussia Dortmund defender Christian Worns in mid-May.

Furthermore, Ribbeck's decision to recall 34-year-old Thomas Hassler, including him in the Euro 2000 squad even though he has not played for Germany since France 98, hardly inspires huge confidence.

Ribbeck consoles himself with the observation that whenever Germany's preparations for a major finals tournament have gone smoothly, the team has subsequently performed poorly. Where Germany are concerned, he claims, trouble in the home camp is good for business.

Captain Bierhoff is more pragmatic in his analysis. "Romania and Portugal are sides with lots of skill and technique, whereas England is of course an historical rival," he said. "The first two might give us some bother but, in the end, this group will be down to us and England. As I've said, I'm an optimist and I know that Germany always makes it count in the big tournaments".

He had better believe it.