OF the 22 horses declared for today's Airlie Coolmore Irish 1,000 Guineas and tomorrow's Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh, 11 are trained in Britain and one in France.
The prospects of keeping the colt's classic at home are slim and while ante post odds would suggest otherwise, I believe we have a good chance of retaining the 1,000 Guineas with Dance Design.
Dance Design has not been seen since finishing fourth in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp in early October but she has been working exceptionally well for Dermot Weld, both of whose Irish 1,000 Guineas winners, Prince's Polly (1982) and Trusted Partner (1988), were making their seasonal debut.
While Dance Design has won on soft ground - on her debut at Galway last season when the going was loose rather than soft after a thunderstorm - she is best on a good or firm surface. If the forecast is right, there will be little or no rain on the Curragh and the ground should be nearly perfect.
Dance Design later confirmed the good impression she had created at Galway with another convincing success at Leopardstown. She then finished a close up fourth in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes but, denied an opening until well inside the final furlong, was deemed very unlucky. The winner Priory Belle could not get in a blow at Dance Design in her previous race at Leopardstown.
The ground was very soft at Longchamp for the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac in which Dance Design failed to quicken in the closing stages and finished fourth, approximately four lengths behind the winner Miss Tahiti. However, Dermot Weld does not blame the ground for her defeat.
Interestingly, Shake The Yoke, who was runner up to Miss Tahiti in the Boussac and just under two lengths ahead of the Irish filly, relegated Miss Tahiti to third place when winning a Group Two at Longchamp a month ago and was subsequently a close second behind Ta Rib in the French 1,000 Guineas.
Distant Oasis won on her only start at Ascot early this month, having dwelt at the start and losing a good four lengths. This supplemented half sister to the high class miler Reprimand might be very good but she does lack experience and in a difficult race I believer My Branch will prove the danger to Dance Design who, unlike her English trained rivals, looks value.
Beaten half a length by Idris in the Gladness Stakes Burden Of Proof meets his rival on 4lb better terms in the Group Three Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes and that should be sufficient to turn the tables.
The Con Collins trained Raphane, short headed by Check The Band and ahead of the subsequent impressive Leopardstown winner Verglas over this course, can emulate last year's winner Nashcash by winning the Orab B. Marble Hill Stakes.
