As fearless punters go, the Italian gentleman who invested the princely sum of 2,500 lira, the equivalent of around 90 pence, on England to beat Italy this afternoon at Twickenham deserves a place in the betting hall of fame. Assuming the home side secure victory, his profit will be the equivalent of about half a penny, which is more than most would gamble on Italy causing an upset.

At 150 to 1 on, the bookmakers insist England are not so much involved in a one-horse race as an uncontested stroll, seduced by the stunning 44-15 win over Wales in Cardiff which convinced many that Clive Woodward's side had permanently cast off their blinkers.

From inside the home dressing-room, of course, professional courtesy demands a more moderate tone. Woodward duly made polite noises yesterday about their opponents' pack and the folly of taking any Test opposition for granted.

Most of us, even so, would still confidently back this England team to get to the ball long before Cinderella. Like so many casual fans, Woodward continues to refer back to the Wales game but only in the sense of identifying where his men fell short. "I'm not a statto but we lost the ball 43 times in that game. When we've gone through it on video in the cold light of day, there's loads of improvements that can be made."

It is precisely this restless ambition which Brian Ashton, Woodward's assistant, believes made the performance against Wales possible. England's trio of autumn wins were highly impressive, but within the squad lurked a gnawing hunger for more.

"It was fantastic to win those three games, unprecedented in English rugby, but we knew that, if you sit back and just accept it, you're making a big, big mistake," insists Ashton.

"You have to move on and offer something a little bit different. It's taken us quite some time to get to that radical stage where we felt we could actually go out and do that."

As their reshuffled defence prepares to try to stop Will Greenwood, Austin Healey and Mike Catt, winning his 50th cap, Italy will also be interested to learn that, in terms of their tackle count, England's defensive performance against Wales was the best since their specialist coach Phil Larder took charge.

Italy, in all honesty, can hardly tackle worse in midfield than they did against Ireland, but, without Diego Dominguez's steadying influence, it is asking a lot of their talented flanker Mauro Bergamasco to unsettle England on his own.

If the Azzurri restrict England to a 40point winning margin, they will have done well.