Cardiff haka to be France's finale

RUGBY:Away from the madding crowds and buzz of France, there hasn't been much hint of a World Cup going on this past week in Cardiff save for the media postmortems on the Welsh exit and the possible identity of their new coach. The bars were all in readiness but empty until the 20,000-strong New Zealand invasion began arriving in the last day or two. A nations expects and all that, but New Zealand appear to be wearing it well.

Whether the reputed, and hard to believe, 20,000-strong invasion from France materialises we will wait and see. But, in further marked contrast, optimism is not exactly rife among the French. About the only thing they are apparently clinging to is their memorable semi-final win over the All Blacks in the 1999 semi-final.

That too was on neutral territory; the All Blacks were looking even more invincible than now; France were given little or no chance after even worse pool form; and, as an aside, Ireland had bombed out of the tournament.

Jonah Lomu having run through France at will, with half an hour to go it still seemed a slightly edgy New Zealand would storm through to the final. Whereupon the French cut loose as only they can. All their innate football skills came bursting to life.

Confidence flowed through their every pore. The Twickenham crowd, having wrongly targeted Jim Fleming for correctly punishing endless French spoiling at the breakdown, sided with France and Fleming lost his nerve.

Christophe Lamaison was in the zone, dropping goals and landing kicks. Along with Fabien Galthie, he set up two of their stunning four tries in the last half-hour with perfectly placed kicks for Richard Dourthe and Christophe Dominici. It was possibly the most remarkable Test match of all time.

However, this team seems too programmed to scale such heights of liberty and freedom. It is self-evident in Bernard Laporte's team selection - with a suddenly reconverted fullback in Damien Traille augmenting the battery of kickers in Lionel Beauxis, Cedric Heymans and Jean-Baptiste Elissalde - that they are going to kick the ball all right, but in an altogether more structured, even defensive way.

"It is fair to say they are going to kick it, and kick it a lot, I'd say," ventured Graham Henry with typical dryness yesterday after their captain's run in the escapist Vale of Glamorgan base. "I think we will be bombarded."

Maybe the Laporte/Maso masterplan will work, the French will contest every scrap of territory, blitz them with their defence, with Serge Betsen, Thierry Dusautoir and co spoiling away at the breakdown, the All Blacks will become bogged down in a war of attrition and then, evoking further memories of 1999, Laporte will unleash his raft of play-it-off-the-cuff gamebreakers from the bench in the last 20 or 30 minutes. And he will be declared a genius.

Clearly, France will not be disinclined to find touch, all the more so from distance, and in this they have two good reasons. Not only are the All Blacks probably the best counterattacking team in the world, but their lineout is undoubtedly an Achilles heel.

None of their hookers are exceptional dartsmen, though the experienced Anton Oliver is probably the coolest under pressure (their more dynamic replacement, Keven Mealamu, is a doubt with a hamstring strain).

The All Blacks have also left Chris Jack on the bench for the more abrasive Keith Robinson. It would have probably helped France's defensive lineout if Lionel Nallet had started instead of Fabien Pelous, though at least they have him and Imanol Harinordoquy in reserve.

Presuming Dan Carter can perform at full tilt, then in all other areas the Kiwis look the more potent outfit, not least in their superbly coached, eight-man scrum. Their clearing out is a tacit lesson to anybody, and if they get a sniff of a turnover, the defensive pillars will go hunting in a flash. Off turnovers and unstructured play, there is no more lethal attacking team in the world.

The French masterplan also seems predicated on subduing the All Blacks early on and ensuring the pressure builds. It carries shades of their blatant exercise in damage limitation in the second test of November 2006 after the demoralising 47-3 thrashing in Lyon the week before.

And what if the All Blacks spring from the traps and score a try or two early on? What happens to the French masterplan then? It will have flown away through the gap kept open in the corner of the Millennium Stadium roof.

This, if anything, should also suit the favourites. Henry looked as relaxed as his players yesterday, and in lovebombing the hosts and his former employers, the All Blacks coach declared, "Yeah, it is a marvellous stadium. I might be biased but I think it is the greatest rugby stadium in the world. The grass hasn't always lived up to the standard of the stadium but the grass is the best it has been in eight years. I am pleased with that."

A compromise has been reached with regard to the jerseys, with both teams wearing their second strips, which means the French will wear white and the Kiwis black shorts with that garish grey reserve jersey.

This might help Laporte's attempts this week to demystify the All Blacks. The odds are it will be the only way he will succeed.

Head-to-head: Played 45, New Zealand 34 wins, France 10 wins, 1 draw.

Last five meetings: New Zealand 61 France 10 (2007); New Zealand 42 France 11 (2007); France 11 New Zealand 23 (2006); France 3 New Zealand 47 (2006); France 6 New Zealand 45 (2004).

Leading try scorers: New Zealand - Doug Howlett 6, Joe Rokocoko 5, Sitiveni Sivivatu 4. France - Vincent Clerc 5, Lionel Nallet 3.

Leading points scorers: New Zealand - Nick Evans 50, Daniel Carter 32. France - Jean-Baptiste Elissalde 42, Clerc 25.

Match Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/6 New Zealand, 25/1 Draw, 7/2 France. Handicap Betting: 10/11 New Zealand (-13), 25/1 H'cap draw, 10/11 (France +13).

Forecast: New Zealand to win.