BRIAN O'CONNORbelieves the 13-times champion jockey can finally capture the world's most famous race at his 14th attempt
THE HORSE that could require oxygen after today’s John Smith’s Aintree Grand National may also leave bookmakers in these islands gasping for breath with a potential €80 million pay-out on the cards in the world’s most famous steeplechase.
That potential threat to the bookmaking industry from Butler’s Cabin comes on the back of a wider public believing that it will be 14th time lucky for the horse’s jockey, Tony McCoy.
Famously one of racing’s greatest ever riders needs only a Grand National victory to complete a sparkling big race CV and it’s a tribute to McCoy’s remorseless desire to fill in that blank that so many will be willing to row in with him again.
After all the previous 13 hardly make encouraging reading. McCoy has completed the National on just four occasions and there has been some spectacular bad luck along the way.
Clan Royal was brought to a halt by a loose horse in 2005 when clear and in 2001 Blowing Wind finished third having been remounted.
Last year Butler’s Cabin was travelling well when falling at Becher’s second time.
But McCoy keeps coming back for more, as does Butler’s Cabin’s owner JP McManus. The legendary Limerick businessman has had his colours carried 29 times in this race and finished runner-up twice.
He runs four today and in L’Ami, McManus has another live contender. But Butler’s Cabin is not surprisingly McCoy’s pick of the quartet. He is not likely to be in want of a motivated jockey at 4.15pm this afternoon.
“From a public perspective, the Grand National is the biggest race of all so not to have won it yet is definitely a failure,” the 13-times champion jockey has admitted.
A tally of over 3,000 career winners reflects McCoy’s ability to bend most races to his will so the National’s stubborn refusal to join the fold clearly irks him.
In some that would present a concern ahead of what is such a high-octane occasion; but pressure only seems to motivate the Co Antrim-born rider more.
There is also the evidence that Butler’s Cabin has first-rate claims on his own merits. Crucially he is on the right side of the famous 11 stone divide in the handicap as only Hedgehunter in the last 25 years has carried more than 11st to victory – and that was by only 1lb!
Butler’s Cabin’s stamina is assured having won over four miles at Cheltenham two years ago, and adding the Irish National – always a good trial for this – the same season.
After both those victories he dramatically had to receive oxygen but happily such incidents don’t appear to last long or have a lasting impact.
Butler’s Cabin was certainly travelling enthusiastically until tipping up here 12 months ago and he is normally an assured jumper.
Crucially he is also coming here in form after a good run at last month’s Cheltenham festival.
Jonjo O’Neill never even got around the National as a jockey so he knows McCoy’s frustration.
But he acknowledged yesterday: “I think Tony has made the right choice. I’m very happy with the horse. He has had a lovely preparation and is in good form.
“We all seem to be jinxed in the National but you never know.”
A total of 11 Irish-trained horses line up trying to improve again on the spectacular record of the last decade which has seen six Irish-based winners deliver on the big occasion.
Black Apalachi has been the shortest priced in ante-post betting for some time now but may prefer softer ground conditions than will probably be the case at Aintree today.
In contrast Hear The Echo, representing the Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary, should be fine on the going and also brings an Irish National-winning pedigree.
However, his trainer Mouse Morris, who is 58 today, believes he is badly handicapped.
That isn’t an issue for Irish Invader who is quietly fancied by Willie Mullins to follow in Hedgehunter’s footsteps.
Discarded by Ruby Walsh in favour of My Will, Irish Invader will be a first National ride for the jockey-find-of-the-season Paul Townend but has been dismissed by some as a non-stayer.
However his pedigree is all stamina and he managed to win over three miles as a novice hurdler.
Mullins expects the fences to be no trouble to his horse and Townend can be expected to ride a patient race.
Aidan O’Brien’s nephew Tom is likely to be working far harder on Zabenz, but this 100 to 1 shot could be one for those who like their big prices. He jumped like a buck here two years ago until a leather snapped after Bechers forcing him to be pulled up.
The New Zealand bred who has won a Victoria Grand National in Australia in 2002, as well as a big race in the USA, has had two point to point runs recently and trainer Philip Hobbs considers his odds to be “insulting”.
Come 4.30pm though millions will be hoping that Tony McCoy can throw some injury as well as insult towards those dreaded bookies who will turnover about €300 million in total on the National this afternoon.
Verdict
1 Butler's Cabin
2 Irish Invader
3 L'Ami
4 Zabenz
5 Himalayan Trail
