Big-ticket office deals mask market shift to ‘beds, sheds and meds’

A cursory look at both the third quarter and year-to-date property investment volume data would indicate that it’s a case of “steady as she goes” in the market but as always, the proverbial devil is in the detail. When you pull back the curtain on the statistics, the current institutional investment mantra of “beds, sheds and meds” is reflected in the true underlying trends.

At first glance, investment volumes for the third quarter show that offices hold the lead at 37.7 per cent closely followed by residential at 36 per cent. Year to date shows an even stronger position for offices at 43.5 per cent and residential at 29.9 per cent. However, two key transactions shroud a huge shift in the market and highlight the importance of both the residential sector and the movement in non-office investments.

If we exclude the €1.089 billion Hibernia Reit (Hibernia Real Estate Group) transaction from the second quarter (which arguably should not have been included as it was a corporate acquisition) and the one-off €500 million Salesforce headquarter deal from the third quarter, the lay of the land changes dramatically. The result is that the residential sector exceeds 50 per cent of third-quarter volumes and 44.4 per cent of the year-to-date volumes. Conversely, the office sector falls to a mere 17.7 per cent of the quarter and 17.6 per cent for the year-to-date.

As a consequence of the decline in the office sector’s relative importance we are seeing a number of alternative sectors come to the fore

This is a dramatic transition for the offices sector, which accounted for 39 per cent of market transactions in 2020 and 28 per cent in 2021. A number of factors are likely contributing to this shift. Among them is the depleting availability of developer-led schemes for trade, concern attaching to the occupational impact of the working-from-home (WFH) phenomenon, and the unknown impact of required ESG retrofitting to standing stock.

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As a consequence of the decline in the office sector’s relative importance we are seeing a number of alternative sectors come to the fore. The industrial sector has seen the reverse trend as the desire for sheds from institutions is unabated and the supply side is relatively elastic. It has grown from a mere 4 per cent in 2019 and 8.8 per cent in 2020 to 13.1 per cent currently, almost on a par with office. Similarly, the healthcare sector, from near obscurity, comes to represent almost 8 per cent of investment volumes.

When you add all this up, excluding the Hibernia and Salesforce deals, “beds, sheds and meds” made up over 65 per cent of investment-transaction volume in the year to date. When you consider that sheds and medss collectively amounted to mere rounding errors in the investment statistics 10 years ago, it demonstrates just how much the real-estate landscape has shifted and reinforces the sheer naivety of assuming that the market today is a clear indicator of future trends.

Ultimately, a proactive analysis of occupier and investor demand-supply dynamics is the route to working out where the real estate market is going. For example, the impact of rising interest rates and construction costs on pre-funding deals is already having an impact on future supply into the residential rental sector which will not manifest in the investment data until later next year.

The increased availability of so-called “grey space” and sublet opportunities, eg LinkedIn in Wilton Place, may further reduce speculative office development and consequent supply. The roll-out of primary healthcare centres across the country will support continued growth in investment the healthcare sector. These trends point to the future of the investment market and are the current focus of our research and consultancy team.