There are just six days left until voters cast their ballots in an unusual presidential election with just two candidates still campaigning after one major casualty.
Here are the standout moments of the campaign so far.
Connolly’s early declaration
Catherine Connolly did not have wide recognition among the public. Her decision to declare in July gave her time to increase her profile and build a support team.
She has had strong left-wing views throughout her career: anti-Nato, anti-US and a Eurosceptic. The advantage of getting out early was she could face hard questions: about her 2018 trip to Syria, her suspicions of France and Britain, her perceived softness towards Russia.
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“She is a very good communicator,” says Richard Moore, a communications specialist who worked with Seán Gallagher’s campaign in 2011 and Gavin Duffy’s in 2018.
[ Miriam Lord: Catherine Connolly’s Áras campaign begins with a very ‘soft launch’Opens in new window ]
“She had an unsteady start with some interviews but grew into it. She softened the hard left image.”
Labour’s early pledge of support
In mid-July Labour rowed in officially with Connolly’s campaign, joining the Social Democrats and People Before Profit. Labour’s decision was arguably more significant than that of Sinn Féin, which waited until late September to back her. It set the momentum for the concept of a united left. “I think Labour support softened her edges. It dimmed the view of her as a more militant outlier,” says Moore.
Mairead McGuinness pulls out
[ Who is Mairead McGuinness, the early front-runner in the presidential race?Opens in new window ]
Mairead McGuinness was confirmed as Fine Gael’s nominee on July 15th. Given her high profile, experience, communications skills and solid electoral record, she was immediately installed as favourite. Less than a month later, on August 14th, she announced her withdrawal citing health grounds.
It was a body blow for Fine Gael. Within three weeks, Heather Humphreys was endorsed. She was popular and had solid Government experience but there were deficits too: questions about her appetite for the campaign and about her ability to think on her feet.
The Jim Gavin experiment goes badly wrong for Fianna Fáil
When Taoiseach Micheál Martin unveiled the former Dublin GAA football manager Jim Gavin as Fianna Fáil’s preferred candidate in early September – over party stalwart and MEP Billy Kelleher – it was seen as a great stroke. Here was a person who had achieved great success in sport. Then the Irish Independent made queries about a former tenant – an employee of its newspaper group – who Gavin owed €3,300 in overpaid rent to going back 16 years.
“The Gavin thing was extraordinary,” says a senior adviser with a previous presidential campaign, who asked not be named. “That a party of such stature and experience could get to that stage in a presidential campaign and not have uncovered this problem earlier is beyond me.”
Moore is of the view that picking somebody with no political track record was high risk: “He might be able to do an after-dinner speech but doing a live debate is different, or having questions fired at you by 10 journalists in the heat of battle.”
Moore doesn’t understand Fianna Fáil’s due diligence and how an emailed media query about Gavin’s time as a landlord in early September “didn’t send up a rocket flare straight away”.
Gareth Sheridan and Maria Steen fail to make the cut
The failure of the two Independent hopefuls to get on the ticket, made it the smallest field since 1990. Commentators agree that if one, or both, had been in the field it would have changed the nature of the race.
Derek Mooney, a former adviser for Fianna Fáil, says there was clearly a large group of voters dissatisfied with the Government, who might have voted for Independent candidates such as businessman Gareth Sheridan or conservative campaigner Maria Steen, rather than Connolly.
“It’s a strategic error. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would have benefited from having at least three non-Government candidates,” he says.
Connolly builds a lead in the first debate
The first live debate on Virgin Media on September 29th delivered a clear lead for Connolly which she was not to relinquish. Gavin was nervous, halting and inarticulate. Humphreys made an effort to stay above the fray and did not engage. In contrast, Connolly was relaxed, cool-headed and engaged throughout.
[ In a low-energy presidential debate, only one candidate lit a sparkOpens in new window ]
For Moore, there was one clear winner: “Gavin was poor. He struggled to articulate a vision or to debate. Humphreys also disappeared. The truth is you have to come out swinging and assert yourself. She sat in the middle and didn’t look like she wanted to get involved ... You get away with that if there’s five-plus candidates. You can’t hide in a three-candidate race.”
Connolly’s big social media campaign
Connolly’s campaign team followed the playbook of the abortion referendum in 2018 with distinctive branding and clever use of social media. The messages resonated with a younger demographic: on core issues such as Gaza, neutrality, the triple lock, social justice and equal rights. The online campaign led to 7,000 volunteers sign up and €100,000 raised from small donations.
Natasha Fennell of Stillwater Communications, who advised Joan Freeman in the 2018 election, was impressed by the communications strategy, saying it used “imagination” and “creativity”.
“They’ve positioned her across all demographics, across all walks of life and she’s really good at being participative – she looks presidential,” she says.
The Éirigí employee and the alleged ‘smear campaign’
Connolly was always going to be challenged more because, politically, she has been closer to the edge. Mid-campaign, it was disclosed that in 2018 she employed a woman who had been convicted of firearms offences by the Special Criminal Court in 2014.
In response, she cleaved to a line that stressed the importance of rehabilitation for the ex-prisoner. The former adviser said there were other instances where her answers lacked rigour, such as her equivocating for 24 hours on the question of employing a convicted sexual offender, or her not being able to recall how she voted in the Nice referendum (she campaigned for a No vote). Neither had any appreciable impact on her campaign.
She then seized on an admonition to Fine Gael by Ivan Yates to “smear the bejesus out of her” and accused the party of a deliberate smear campaign against her.
“There was no smear campaign,” says Moore.
[ Catherine Connolly should ask Jim Gavin what a smear campaign looks likeOpens in new window ]
“I’ve been through the 2011 and 2018 campaigns. There was far more stuff thrown in those than in this one. Jim Gavin too had much more thrown at him.”
So why did those “smears” not have an impact?
Moore says voters in presidential campaigns don’t always vote on issues. “They are prepared to park party loyalties,” he says, in favour of a candidate with the right disposition and temperament.
The keepie-uppies
It was the campaign’s viral moment, mentioned by everybody, and a candid moment where people got a glimpse of a more human side to Connolly. “It was the keepie-uppies that sealed the deal,” said a Labour Party source, in the wake of The Irish Times/Ipsos B & A opinion poll on Thursday that gave Connolly an 18-point lead.
