For a presidential election with just two candidates still campaigning, the battle has produced more than enough social media talking points.
The visit of Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys to Belfast on Monday was overshadowed by a posting on her social media account that mistakenly interposed Belfast City Hall with an image of the Reichstag in Berlin. She thanked her opponents for noticing the erroneous stock photograph – and it was taken down and replaced.
Similarly, her sole remaining opponent, Independent TD Catherine Connolly, was obliged to take down a video of hers that included a clip of the outgoing President Michael D Higgins. It was revealed he had not given his permission for it to be used.
And long before he bowed out due to the controversy over the €3,300 he owed to a former tenant, Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin was fending off complaints about using unauthorised drones to gather campaign footage – and of failing to close a farm gate in his first presidential campaign video.
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Undoubtedly though, the prime social media moment to date is owned by Connolly.
During a visit to Courtney Place in Dublin last week, the 68-year-old was seen first juggling a football with remarkable ease – then intercepting and throwing a basketball.
Such was the juxtaposition with her normally serious persona that some social media commentators suggested the video was the work of generative artificial intelligence.
Her handlers were delighted. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald shared the footage of Connolly’s “keepie-uppies” online and it became hugely popular across social media.
“There is no doubt that Catherine Connolly is winning the social media battle,” digital marketing expert Cian Murphy says.
“Not only does her follower count far exceed Heather Humphreys’s. Her positive sentiment exceeds Humphreys’s too.”
Having crunched the data, he says Connolly has almost 900 per cent more followers than Humphreys on TikTok and more than 800 per cent more on Instagram. She leads the way on X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook, though by smaller margins.
Examining Google Trends, which measures online interest in particular topics and people, Murphy says there has been higher interest in Connolly for much of the campaign. The data suggests this has consistently been the case since mid-September.
Gavin, who ended his campaign over a years-old dispute with a tenant over a debt he owed, had generally fared better than Humphreys, too, when it came to online searches and mentions. Interest really peaked in the Fianna Fáil candidate last weekend, but this was due to the tenant controversy and was not a reflection of positive sentiment.
This is not to say that Humphreys’s campaign is not investing in online.
Murphy says it has spent a sizeable amount on paid promotions. However, he also says several were removed by Meta for failing to meet its own advertising standards.
He says Connolly’s team has spent several thousand euro doing the same, but more of her promotions seem to have survived Meta’s guidelines. He suggests this may be because her campaign is pushing snippets from interviews – as opposed to promotional videos.
Social media consultant and content creator Jane Casey believes Connolly’s campaign has stolen a march on Humphreys, and previously Gavin, simply through the amount of material it posts online.
“Coming up to two weeks out from an election date, the fact that Heather Humphreys’s side is sometimes only posting two Instagram videos a day is crazy,” she says.
“Catherine Connolly’s campaign is on the ball non-stop. In one 24-hour period they posted 15 Instagram videos. They are posting ‘behind-the-scenes’ videos and responding to comments and from a technical level, the platforms reward people who put up more content.”
Casey believes that videos, such as the one shot in Courtney Place, carry a sense of “authenticity” that cannot be replicated in slick, stage-managed campaign advertising.
She says Connolly’s grassroots-style approach to social media is producing “mobile-phone friendly” content, which the platforms’ algorithms are more likely to pick up and promote.
“Anything that looks too TV broadcast-ready or too polished doesn’t get picked up – and people are more likely to swipe past it,” Casey says.
“Connolly’s campaign has been doing a lot of ‘influencer’ outreach – asking people with big followings online to help drive voter registration – not necessarily looking for an endorsement. That is just very clever.
“With Heather Humphreys [and previously Jim Gavin], I think there is a knowledge gap on social media – they are not using it as effectively as they could.”
Commentator and journalist Liz Carolan has been tracking the campaigns online and agrees there is a distinct difference between what the Connolly and Humphreys camps are producing.
“If you look at Heather Humphreys’s campaign, it is pretty much in line with previous Fine Gael campaigns,” she says.
“Good-quality videos – where they are putting big sums behind what are essentially professional ads.
“Connolly’s campaign seems to be more about getting organic reach – and finding people native to the kind of media she is using.
“I think Fine Gael has the most professional operation when it comes to the production of content. Heather’s introductory video was very nicely produced – she had people talking about her and it enabled her to own her own story.”
However, Carolan believes the Fine Gael strategy of, for example, having paid advertisements on the likes of YouTube falls down on the other platforms.
“It doesn’t work on TikTok or [Instagram] reels where you have three seconds to catch someone’s attention.”
She also finds Connolly has access to an online constituency that simply isn’t available to Humphreys.
“A lot of ‘progressive’ influencers are engaging a lot on Gaza – even influencers who wouldn’t normally be political – and that seems to be a segue for them to talk about Catherine Connolly,” she says.
“Heather doesn’t really have a natural online constituency. Jim Gavin was doing better – on things like football podcasts and with endorsements from footballers – he was breaking through there. I’m not sure what Heather Humphreys’s internet is.”
Carolan says candidates who have relied on the traditional online channels to deliver campaign videos will increasingly struggle with the new bans on political advertising by Google and Facebook-owner Meta.
Google has banned these since September 22nd and Meta has done so since yesterday. The moves were in response to the imminent introduction of regulations by the European Union. Rather than comply with the rules – that would have meant retaining vast amounts of advertising for years – the tech companies have instead gone down their own path.
Ultimately, social media is but one way of communicating with voters.
Traditional media and news coverage, despite its reported steady decline, still holds the attention of a large section of the voting population, as evidenced by the decent numbers that have viewed the television debates to date.
The most dedicated users of social media are those in the younger age categories, groups in the past who have been less likely to cast a vote. Humphreys fares better on Facebook than most other online platforms – and this has skewed towards older users in recent years.
Murphy is unsure how the social media edge enjoyed by Connolly will translate into votes.
“It seems social media users prefer the more candid social presence of Connolly over the high production visuals of Humphreys,” he says.
“Does this mean Catherine Connolly will win? I’m not too sure. Maybe larger-paid media budgets will play a significant role in the decision making.”
