The European Union is Israel’s biggest trading partner: it’s a lopsided relationship in which almost a third of Israel’s imports come from the European Union, while for the union Israel accounts for just 0.8 per cent of its total trade.
The idea of suspending the favourable terms under which this trade takes place through the EU-Israel Association Agreement has been floated since last year by those pushing for a tougher response to the vast destruction and civilian death toll in Gaza. Its text states “the observance of human rights” is the “very basis” and an “essential element” of the agreement.
Trade is the toughest tool that the union has, carrying potentially more severe consequences even than the suspension of weapons exports.
Using it once seemed far-fetched. But it became the elephant in the room this week when the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, his patience palpably fraying, told journalists that the international community should stop “begging” Israel for restraint and instead “do something”.
What changed?
The International Court of Justice order that Israel must immediately stop the killing of civilians due to a plausible risk of breaches of the Genocide Convention made countries that continued to uncritically back Israel manifestly exposed to accusations of hypocrisy on international law.
Rather than altering course after the court’s order, the Israeli government pushed towards a ground assault on Rafah – the supposed “safe zone” on the border of Egypt where much of the civilian population of Gaza has been corralled.
The final compounding factor was that the government of Binyamin Netanyahu brushed off appeals from even its closest allies against the plan.
A change in tone became evident this weekend. The foreign minister of Germany Annalena Baerbock warned that the situation in Rafah was “already unbelievable” and that an assault by the Israeli army would be a “humanitarian catastrophe”, saying that the people of Gaza “cannot disappear into thin air”.
This was a shift in rhetoric for a country that has steadfastly insisted on Israel’s right to defend itself since the October 7th attacks and openly opposed South Africa’s case at the ICJ.
Tánaiste Micheál Martin issued a statement to say the invasion “cannot be allowed to happen” and that all union member states now needed to call for a ceasefire with “no further equivocation”. It seemed to show an end to patience with the last holdouts in the union that had continued to veto such a call, despite a majority being in favour.
The fact that only two leaders signed the letter suggests that the idea of reviewing the trade agreement with Israel only has a minority of support.
There are countries that will likely block it too. Hungary and the Czech Republic have blocked the European Union from imposing sanctions on extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank who have been violently driving out Palestinians, even as London and Washington went ahead.
Nevertheless, the fact that the idea is now openly on the table is a significant challenge to the union’s inertia that reflects a real shift – and may lead to changes elsewhere.
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