Ever since the Brexit vote in 2016, a key question has been how trade between the islands of Ireland and Britain would be managed. The political problem is that Brexit meant change had to happen as the UK and Ireland would in future be different trade zones, and caught in the middle of this puzzle was, and is, Northern Ireland.
The latest compromise, which the DUP is considering, involves a concession by the British government that effectively means that whatever checks are in place on goods moving from Britain into Northern Ireland would not get tighter in the years ahead. But the so-called “Irish Sea border” will remain, meaning that goods crossing into Northern Ireland will be subject to some checks, albeit with a light touch.
The latest negotiations reportedly involve a commitment from the UK government that its trade rules will not diverge from those of the EU in ways that could necessitate tougher checks as goods enter Northern Ireland from Britain. The EU and UK negotiated the current level of checks – as outlined in the Windsor Framework and via subsequent contacts – on the basis of the current standards applying to UK manufactured goods and food products, which are generally the same as applied when it was an EU member.
The issue is that if the UK standards did diverge from those in the EU in future – for example if Britain changed the rules applying to food products, or safety standards in an area of manufacturing, or environmental requirements – then tighter checks might be needed to control the entry of these products on to the island of Ireland and hence into the EU Single Market. The Daily Telegraph has reported that the proposal is that any new UK rules would be checked to ensure that they did not damage trade across the United Kingdom.
The small print here is not yet clear – for example, were the EU to tighten its standards, would the UK respond in kind? But British prime minister Rishi Sunak is trying to reassure unionism that it is his government’s intention that the trade regime in place – including its green lane for products intended for the Northern Ireland market and as limited as possible checks on those destined for the Republic – will not tighten over time.
Those who have followed the twists and turns over the years will recognise similarities here in the debate on Theresa May’s proposals in 2018 and 2019 which grappled with this issue of divergence – and in particular a promise in 2019 to keep UK rules in line with those in the EU. In the end, this was a key issue leading to her downfall and the willingness of the Tories to listen to Boris Johnson’s promises to “get Brexit done”. The political danger now for Sunak is objections from the hard Brexit wing of his party to anything that is seen to limit Britain’s room for manoeuvre in the years ahead with regard to setting its own rules and regulations and doing new trade deals with other countries.
The debate in the DUP and wider unionism is whether to accept that the progress made in recent years via the negotiation of the Windsor Framework in place of the Northern Ireland protocol is enough to support the deal. The plus side, apart from £3.3 billion (€3.87 billion) from London, is the ability for manufacturers in Northern Ireland to sell goods into both the UK and EU markets, as the North remains a member of the EU customs union for goods.
The downside, for unionism, is that some checks will remain on goods crossing the Irish Sea. But the logic here remains the same as the day the Brexit vote went through – there has to be a trade border somewhere.
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