One of the most important - and flawed - elections ever to have been held in Africa takes place this weekend in Zimbabwe. It pits an increasingly autocratic and tyrannical President Mugabe and his regime against an angry and buoyant opposition movement with rising popular support. Amid horrifying reports of opposition supporters and activists being terrorised, beaten and raped, it is questionable indeed whether a fair election can be held, following the denunciation of such violence by an EU delegation yesterday. But it is going ahead, watched by concerned and interested African neighbours and a wider sympathetic world.
President Mugabe's threats to seize 1,800 white-owned farms and a number of mines have received huge international publicity in the build-up to this crisis. But while those are important symptoms, they are not the most important issue which is fundamentally about power and who wields it in Zimbabwe. Mr Mugabe has been in power for 20 years and faces the prospect now of losing it if his Zanu-PF party fails to win the election. That explains most of the virulent zeal with which his supporters and the state apparatus have been attacking their opponents.
But it is the economic collapse caused by the political crisis which is driving much of this conflict. Even three years ago, Zimbabwe was considered one of the best functioning economies in sub-Saharan Africa, well able to attract foreign investment. Since then, the picture has turned nearly full circle. Inflation is out of control, employment is estimated at 55 per cent and interest rates have soared. Health and educational services are being run down and fuel and power shortages are at critical levels. The heavy economic burden of Zimbabwe's involvement in the Congo war has stoked up all these problems. It has also proved the last straw for many Zimbabweans with relatives in the army and, as news circulates that Mr Mugabe's immediate circle are lining their own pockets through diamond investments there, it confirms widespread corruption in other spheres.
Despite the state-sponsored terror campaigns against the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, that organisation has courageously held together and was recently heartened by the level of support shown in an opinion poll suggesting it could win 70 seats out of 120 in the parliament. Were it to perform to anything like that level, it would be a radical change indeed, signalling the end of Mr Mugabe's rule. But it could also signal much more open civil conflict or even an attempt by the military to take over power to back up the Mugabe regime.
This is, therefore, a crucial time for Zimbabwe and for southern Africa as a whole. The EU delegation is only one of the observer groups there to monitor the elections; others from the Organisation for African Unity and the Commonwealth must now speak out about repression and the latest blatant attempts to intimidate voters into supporting the ruling party. If democratic rule is to be consolidated in the region, other leaders must condemn it immediately - especially President Mbeki of South Africa, who has been strangely silent so far. Too much is at stake for the continent as a whole to let such outrages go by default.