The current attempt to reach a political accommodation on abortion is proving as difficult as previous exercises. The Twenty-Fifth Amendment of the Constitution (Protection of Human Life in Pregnancy) Bill, 2001 - the basis for the intended referendum in February - has passed its committee stage in the Dβil. All the signs are that it is dividing the political parties along similar lines to those that divided them in previous anti-abortion referendums in 1983 and 1992. There is only the appearance of more personal civility and less damning hostility in the debate.
More than half-way through its legislative pro cess, the Bill to enable the fifth referendum on abortion is engendering such divisions between, and within, parties as to make the brokering of a national consensus almost impossible. Fianna Fβil members, whether proponents or opponents of the Supreme Court judgment in the "X" case in 1992, are standing four-square behind the Taoiseach's proposal. The party's so-called pro-lifers are the most vocal; there are no liberal voices to hail what was initially presented - with some plausibility - as a compromise.
The Fine Gael party has yet to adopt a position on the specifics of the referendum. It has taken a cautious road through the second and committee stages, arguing that the Bill should be delayed for three months to enable all to vote technically against it. It is clear, however, that the party is deeply divided - not just on the holding of the referendum and the exclusion of possible suicide as a grounds for abortion - but on the electoral implications involved. The passionate contributions of its women members, Ms Nora Owen, Ms Olivia Mitchell and Ms Monica Barnes will not easily be silenced during the campaign.
The Labour Party has positioned itself firmly in the liberal camp with its immediate decision to oppose the principle and substance of the referendum. It will campaign against the attempt to water-down the "X" judgment by excluding the risk of suicide. The Green Party is also opposed to the referendum.
With the legislation set to pass all stages in the Dβil this week, it is surely questionable whether the referendum should proceed at all. The Taoiseach and the Attorney General made an honest, and well-intentioned, attempt to bridge the gap between the pro- and anti- abortion lobbies with a conservative Bill under-pinned by referendum. The Progressive Democrats signed up to this formula, conditional upon there being "sufficient broad middle-ground support".
The Dβil is divided on the Government's proposal. Dana Rosemary Scallon, MEP, and the re-structured Youth Defence, have split the anti-abortion lobby. The alignment of forces which appears to be shaping-up between Fianna Fβil and the Pro-Life Campaign in addition to the positive statement expected from the Catholic Bishops' Conference at their December meeting, could perhaps produce a majority in a referendum. But a numerical victory would not reflect a broad national consensus of Ireland's middle-ground. This referendum should be withdrawn.