Warning signs for Fine Gael in byelection results

Contrary to immediate impressions the outcome of last week’s byelections showed very little change in the level of support for the three biggest parties in the Dáil since the last general election. What it did show was a dramatic increase in support for the Greens and a significant recovery by the Labour Party.

When the results of the four byelections are aggregated and compared with the outcome in the same constituencies in 2016 the stability of the vote won by the three biggest parties is remarkable. Fine Gael won 20.7 per cent of the votes cast last Friday, a drop of one point on its general election performance in the four constituencies.

Considering that the party has now been in office for almost nine years it was a solid if not inspiring performance but far from the electoral disaster so widely touted in the light of the party’s failure to win any of the available seats.

Fianna Fáil had a lot to cheer about, winning two of the vacant seats, but the party’s share of the vote last Friday was 24.7 per cent, not a whole lot different to the 24.1 per cent it achieved across the same constituencies in the general election. Still, the byelection victories were an important morale boost for the party and will inspire confidence among supporters that it can overtake Fine Gael in the general election.

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Boost for Sinn Féin

The Sinn Féin vote at 14.1 per cent was even closer to its general election showing of 14.2 per cent. The party’s performance and particularly its strong showing in Dublin Mid West, where it won a seat, was an important boost for leader Mary Lou McDonald after the disaster of the local and European elections last May. It indicates that the party’s core vote is solid.

The standout performance in the byelections was the showing of the Greens, who won 10.6 per cent of the vote, a jump of eight points from 2016. The spectacular performance of Joe O’Brien, who won the party’s first ever byelection seat in Dublin North, showed that the party is in a great position to make significant gains in suburban Dublin and the surrounding commuter belt constituencies.

The respectable performance of the Green candidates in the other constituencies indicates that the party has the potential to win seats outside Dublin. The transfer-friendly profile of the Greens means that if their candidates get enough first preference votes to stay in the race they can attract significant transfers in every count and leapfrog other parties.

The Labour Party also had a good byelection outing even if the party didn’t win any seats. It pushed its vote up by five points since the general election to 14.6 per cent and it won more votes than Sinn Féin. George Lawlor’s strong performance in the party’s Wexford heartland boosted its overall tally but Duncan Smith’s showing in Dublin Fingal was also impressive.

One important factor helping Labour and the Greens was the sharp fall in support for Independents and the various hard left factions. If this is repeated in the general election it will have a significant impact on the outcome. The Greens generally benefit most when such candidates are eliminated but Labour will also be competing for transfers. In the last general election the party was transfer-repellent because of its participation in government but a stint in opposition has changed all that.

For instance, George Lawlor in Wexford was in third place in the first count, a good 1,500 votes behind Fine Gael candidate Verona Murphy. By the fourth county he had overtaken her and was in the final shake-up with the Fianna Fáil victor Malcolm Byrne.

There is a very different message on transfers for Fine Gael. The party’s candidates in Wexford and Cork North Central were in second place on the first count but their lead over the third-placed candidate in each constituency was steadily eroded and they ended up being overtaken in the final stages of the count.

Transfers

This is a real danger signal for Fine Gael. The byelections indicate that the party is capable of retaining the share of the vote it won in 2016 but that will not be good enough next time around as transfers from other candidates will be thin on the ground. To retain its position as the biggest party in the country it will have to increase its first preference vote over the last general election by a substantial margin.

Of course it would be a mistake to read too much into the byelections, particularly as the turnout was so low and voters were aware that the outcome would have no impact on the Government’s future. The general election will have a very different dynamic and a lot will depend on the nature of the campaign.

The 2016 general election was an example of how the mood of the electorate can be swayed once the election is under way. Micheál Martin had a great campaign in 2016 with his message that Fianna Fáil was the party of fairness. Leo Varadkar will be a very different kind of opponent than Enda Kenny. The Taoiseach showed genuine leadership skills when it counted, during the long drawn out Brexit process, but the election will be a very different challenge.