AS IF the economic crisis and its plummeting popularity going into European and local elections were not enough, the Government faces the huge task of leading a campaign in favour of the Lisbon Treaty this autumn. It can take some small comfort from the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll showing that the Yes vote has increased by 2 points in a fortnight to 54 per cent while the No vote has dropped by a point to 28 per cent. The don't knows are now at 18 per cent.
The critical finding is that some 81 per cent of voters now believe that it is better to be part of the European Union than not in the current crisis.
The Lisbon Treaty referendum will be a crucial one for Ireland’s future in the EU and for the Union itself. Last year’s campaign in favour of the treaty was pathetically weak, whether judged by the Government’s role, that of opposition parties who supported the treaty, or of civil society organisations favouring a Yes vote. They failed to communicate their message and were defeated during the campaign by a better organised and prepared No side.
Dramatically changed economic and political conditions since then have transformed the context of last year’s result, with many voters now shifting their views in favour of the treaty for fear that Ireland will be isolated if we reject it again. In addition to that the Government expects to complete negotiations on abortion, neutrality, taxation and workers’ rights clarifying whether and how the treaty will affect their application here by the EU summit this month. That would enable it to say Irish concerns have been met, justifying a change of mind by voters.
All this is well and good, but it is no substitute for a convincing political campaign in favour of the treaty this autumn. There is precious little evidence so far that this will be mounted. How energetic would the Government be if it is discredited in the ballot box in next Friday’s elections and dispirited by the resulting fall in morale – even after a long summer break?
Taoiseach Brian Cowen has pledged to involve the Oireachtas more in European affairs after the decision to abolish the National Forum on Europe. But so far he has made little effort to bring the main opposition parties along with him in favour of a campaign for the treaty, as will be essential if it is to pass. Nor is there as yet much public evidence that civil society groups supporting Lisbon are organising for that effort, although a lot of preparation is going on behind the scenes.
None of these should be complacent about it. If they have not made substantial progress in organising a campaign before the summer break, including informing voters about the treaty’s content and implications, they will be at a real disadvantage in September.
The No campaigners have a more difficult task this time, but are well able to take advantage of their opponents’ disarray. This issue is far too important to be left to an ad hoc organisation and argument this autumn.