The capture of Kabul by the Taliban, and the enforcement of its strict Islamic rule over the large area of Afghanistan which it now controls, has transformed the balance of power in the region, but almost certainly will not bring about the stability which the country urgently needs.
Both Iran, which has expended considerable diplomatic effort in attempting to persuade the warring factions to co operate, and the United States have responded to the new crisis by calling for the formation of a coalition government - an overlapping of policy between two states normally at opposite ends of the political spectrum. But the commonsense approach of abandoning rivalries for the sake of national unity has never been a feature of Afghan politics since the eruption of civil war in the early 1970s, and it is straining credibility to expect that it will begin now.
Indeed, the summary execution of the former communist president, Gen Najibullah, and his brother; the violation of UN sanctuary which it entailed; and the threat of the same fate for the leaders of the ousted Kabul regime if they are caught - using Islamic law as ostensible justification - do not point to a willingness by the new government to make peace with its enemies. In imposing its authority over a bitterly divided state, bloody repression is more likely to be the pattern in the coming months rather than openness to conciliation.
Many elements are still unclear. The role of Pakistan in the victory of the Taliban, which was formed only two years ago in rejection of factional infighting, has never been admitted by the authorities in Islamabad, but is widely suspected. The strength and cohesion of the former Kabul government headed by President Burhanuddin Rabbani, which now claims to be regrouping its forces, is also uncertain: it retains a large part of its military hardware, but its record of internecine strife is not a good omen for its ability to fight back. The intentions in northern Afghanistan of the Uzbeki warlord, Gen Abdul Rashid Dostam, who rejected a plea for help from the Rabbani government and has declared his neutrality, are another unpredictable factor as the Taliban attempts to extend its grip across the country.
How far international efforts to bring about stability can succeed is doubtful, given the defiance already shown to the UN mission in Kabul with the abduction and hanging of Gen Najibullah. But the risks in the new power relationships flowing from the Taliban coup d'etat have profound implications for a broad range of countries. Russia, mindful of the Islamic group of former Soviet republics bordering on Afghanistan, Iran which is unlikely to remain inactive if the new regime consolidates its position, and India, which already sees dangers of Pakistan increasing pressure on Kashmir, all have reasons for reassessing policy. And, whatever the significance for major state interests, the people of Afghanistan are unlikely to see an end to their suffering.