ON THE ground in Syria the Arab League observer mission appears to have had little impact on the 10-month uprising, either in restraining the authorities’ brutality or reassuring beleaguered protesters. As Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend its intention to pull out of the mission because of Syria’s failure to co-operate with its mandate, league foreign ministers meeting in Cairo sought to up the pressure on Damascus and regain the political initiative with a transition plan that the latter yesterday rejected and dismissed as outside interference.
EU foreign ministers yesterday applauded the initiative and tightened sanctions, adding 22 people and eight entities to a list of banned people and groups.
Although the 22-member league has appeared divided, with the Saudis particularly critical of what it sees as chair Qatar’s overly conciliatory approach, all but Lebanon backed the plan. They also backed a renewal for a month of the observer mission’s mandate.
The transition plan, with an ambitious timetable, requires President Bashar al Assad to hand over power to a deputy, to open talks with the opposition within two weeks on a government of national unity which should be formed within two months, to be followed by presidential and parliamentary elections within five months. The assembly so elected would draft a new constitution. It is a framework that appears to be modelled on the agreement recently signed by President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen and follows an earlier, less ambitious plan from the league, supposedly agreed by Syria in November but then ignored.
“We ask that the Syrian regime leave and hand over power,” Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said bluntly in Cairo. “We are with the Syrian people, with their will and with their aspirations.” It is a remarkable statement and a position that would have been inconceivable only a year ago from the once-staid league. It makes reform demands of Damascus, as a Syrian spokesman noted sourly, which would challenge “many of the Arab states leading the hostile campaign against Syria”. The Arab Spring has made strange bedfellows indeed for the democracy movement.
Yet, despite optimistic opposition statements about the spread of insurrection, and evidence of a steady flow of army defections to the Free Syrian Army militia, reports from inside Syria seem to support government claims that the rebellion may be being contained. While individual cities, towns and districts have thrown out the army, albeit temporarily and at a heavy price – human rights groups talk of 5,000 dead – wide areas appear to remain largely unaffected by the uprising. A more confident regime this month freed hundreds of detainees, announced an amnesty, struck a ceasefire deal with rebels in one town, and allowed observers and some journalists into some trouble-spots. Assad also renewed his pledges of reform.
Renewed external political and economic pressure may help to tip the balance, but it will be a slow and painful process. Assad remains firmly entrenched.