A mere eight weeks ago Gordon Brown dominated British politics after an effective start as prime minister when he handled several problems calmly and competently. This seemed to deliver precisely the break in style and substance he had promised from Tony Blair's ragged and fatigued last year in office. Mr Brown offered a vision of committed, pragmatic reform as the way to secure a more equal Britain.
The picture now is changed utterly. His strategic mistake in feeding speculation about a general election during the Conservative party conference in early October, only to decide against it, substituted opportunism for statecraft. Then the run on the Northern Bank was followed by the loss of 25 million social welfare identities in the post, adding incompetence to his image. These misfortunes culminated in last week's scandal about party funding, in which Labour was exposed to have broken the laws passed in 2000 by accepting hefty sums anonymously or by proxy. The resignation of two senior party officials and (unconfirmed) suspicions that Mr Brown himself may have known about these transgressions seem to confirm quite a different image of drifting incompetence. It is now compounded by party infighting over who knew what and a police inquiry which reminds voters of the cash for peers scandal during Blair's last year.
Which is the real Brown and can he pull himself and his government out of the current morass self-inflicted by political error and amplified by bad luck? No one should underestimate his ruthless side, his capable political record or capacity to inspire. But this is matched by an urge to control by micro-management and a small-minded begrudgery that becomes all too visible as prime minister in difficult times. There is also the problem of renewing vision, energy and appeal facing any British government after more than 10 years in office. This is hardly the most talented of cabinets. Suddenly, despite their inexperience, the Conservatives look like a potential alternative as they ride 11-12 points ahead.
On Saturday Mr Brown called for further reform of the political contribution laws. The issue has dogged British politics for years, linked to worries about corruption. Mr Brown would like to see more state financing for political parties, which the Conservatives reject. He also wants to cap organisational and individual subscriptions, but needs to protect the trade union support which traditionally has backed Labour.
Seen from Ireland it is a familiar story. On balance the case for more public financing is strong. Representative democracy requires funding, controlled by stringent regulations on transparency and accountability - but given the benefits that flow from political power it is far easier said than done. Mr Brown has time to escape from this morass before the next election, though he cannot afford many more such shocks.