THE ELECTION of Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir in the country’s first multiparty election in 24 years was the foregone conclusion to a race that had precious little democratic credibility. In truth, it was merely a sideshow ahead of a referendum scheduled for January which, if it happens, is likely permanently to divide the country in two through the almost inevitable secession of the south.
Mr Bashir, who seized power in a coup in 1989 and is currently wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity in Darfur, received 68 per cent of the vote, though international observers said the election was marred by intimidation, gerrymandering and fraud. Before the voting started in mid-April, several of the top opposition parties abruptly dropped out of the electoral race, leaving the path clear for Mr Bashir.
In southern Sudan, Mr Bashir’s scarcely more democratic counterpart, Salva Kiir, prevailed as well, winning 93 per cent of the vote to remain president of the semi-autonomous region. He is leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement which has led the fight for secession for decades through two bloody north-south civil wars, and is now the junior partner in the national government under the terms of a 2005 peace treaty. The north is predominantly Muslim, while the south, a third of Africa’s largest country, is mainly Christian and animist and bent on independence since Sudan itself became independent in 1956.
The treaty commits both sides to the referendum but Western powers fear a reluctant Mr Bashir may have second thoughts, and observers suggest their restrained silence over the dubious election reflected a calculation it would make Khartoum less likely to renege on the strategically crucial poll.
At stake, as well as independence for the people of the south – though one fears, on the basis of Mr Kiir’s election, not democratic rights – is control over some 500,000 barrels of oil a day, mostly from the south or along what is a contested potential border line between the two parts of the country. The oil has been enough roughly to double Sudan’s per capita income in the last 10 years. Though its benefits have been unevenly spread, it has contributed to the country’s recent economic growth and Mr Bashir’s relative popularity in the north. Some suggest he had no need to rig the election.
Sudanese authorities began marking the border yesterday in preparation for the poll.