The belief that President Milosevic of Serbia can weather the storm of protest that followed his abrupt cancellation of municipal election results two weeks ago has been dramatically altered by the growing strength of the opposition - joined yesterday by a group of supreme court judges and the Belgrade election commission which publicly dissociated themselves from the decision. There are signs too that the regime is preparing to use force against the protesters, hardening international condemnation as well as making it more likely that sanctions will be reimposed. Up to this week, though tens of thousands of people paraded day after day, the mood was relatively good-humoured and the police appeared to have been ordered to do nothing to exacerbate the situation.
Mr Milosevic's hold on the levers of state - the police, the army, the judiciary, and perhaps most important from his point of view, the media - may yet pull him through as the opposition is divided on a number of issues, though united in its anger with government oppression and the wreck of the Serbian economy. The vital difference between the current protests and others in the last three or four years is that now, for the first time, opponents have electoral proof of their growing popularity. Political mobilisation has taken place across a wide social spectrum including intellectuals and trade unions, radically changing the odds against the President's survival.
Disenchantment with his regime makes it virtually certain that, if an election were held tomorrow, he would be rejected overwhelmingly. He has had a bruising few years during which the deep-dyed nationalist right, his original source of power, has been alienated by his decision to abandon the Bosnian Serbs and negotiate at Dayton. Few new supporters have joined him in compensation.
Just how far Mr Milosevic would go to hold on to power is a crucial question. In terms of numbers, there have probably been no more people on the streets than during mass protests in 1992 against the Bosnian war, and in 1993, when Mr Milosevic ousted Mr Dobrica Cosic, the popular president of the rump Yugoslav Federation. Mr Vuk Draskovic, a veteran nationalist and anti-communist leader who has consistently opposed the President, was arrested and allegedly tortured after those disturbances. This time, as one of the leaders of the current protests, he is strengthened by the Zajedno alliance with other political groups.
Economic issues have been highlighted by the sacking of the governor of the National Bank, Mr Dragoslav Avramovic, seven months ago for suggesting a compromise with the IMF to secure funds to repair the damage caused by sanctions. Strikes and workers' protests followed. There is no doubt where justice and popular opinion lie, and the international community, which has been ambivalent about change in Serbia, is nerving itself for the removal of one of the key players in the effort to maintain Balkan stability. Mr Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement supported the Dayton accords last year, but there is no certainty that Mr Milosevic, if overthrown, will be replaced by democrats. Powerful right-wing and Orthodox church figures are lurking in the wings.