Stephen Collins: Micheál Martin looks safe for the time being

As the Taoiseach and his Ministers head off on their August break it is only fair to say that they have had a reasonably successful first year in office, particularly when it came to dealing with the overriding issue which dwarfed all others – the Covid-19 pandemic.

Judged by the number of hospitalisations and deaths, Ireland has done well by international standards. The Government’s record looks even better when the way it dealt with the complex issues involved is compared with the chaotic handling of the pandemic in the United Kingdom.

The one aspect of the pandemic where Boris Johnson and his government managed to get things right was vaccinations. Yet even here, despite the slow start due to the lack of supply at the beginning of the year, Ireland has managed to catch up with the UK, and on current trends will have a significantly higher proportion of its population vaccinated by the end of the summer.

Barring any dramatic worsening of the pandemic, Martin will be able to point to a significant achievement on the biggest issue that confronted him during his time in the office

Politics is such a funny business that despite his disastrous handling of the virus, with the UK having one of the worst records for deaths in the developed world, Johnson has recovered his popularity in England on the basis of the vaccination programme and even managed to win a seat from Labour in a crucial byelection.

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By contrast, the Government here has lost a byelection and been the butt of criticism from all quarters, ranging from those who claim it should not have relaxed the lockdown last Christmas to those who believe that the lockdown went on for far longer than was necessary. Opposition politicians have unblushingly adopted both of these positions as the occasion suited.

Defending his approach to the pandemic, Martin remarked in recent days that some people may not regard preventing illness and saving people’s lives as important politically but he had no apology to make for his actions over the past year.

Martin now looks far more comfortable in the role of Taoiseach than he did this time last year when he had difficulty finding his feet following a series of political blunders in his first weeks in office. Barring any dramatic worsening of the pandemic, which appears unlikely in the light of the successful vaccination programme, he will be able to point to a significant achievement on the biggest issue that confronted him during his time in the office.

It was typical of political life that his first year in office was marked, not by congratulations from his own party on having done a good job, but by a mini revolt that threw doubt on whether he would lead the Government until December of next year, in accordance with the deal that underpins the Coalition.

The threat to his leadership, prompted by Fianna Fáil’s disastrous showing in the Dublin Bay South byelection, appears to have fizzled out for the moment but there are some seriously discontented people in the party who are just waiting for the moment to mount a challenge.

One of the things that is holding them back is that there is no credible successor waiting in the wings to take over before the end of Martin’s term. Jim O’Callaghan, who is widely touted as the alternative leader, has never held a ministerial position and, as director of elections for Dublin Bay South, has to share some of the responsibility for the electoral disaster.

Housing is unlikely to become irrelevant as an issue by the time the next election comes around but a determined and coherent effort to tackle it might make it less toxic for the parties in power

Martin’s ministerial colleagues and the bulk of his parliamentary party rallied behind him when his leadership was questioned and the prospect of a heave has receded. It will only come back on to the political agenda over the next year if the Taoiseach makes some serious mistakes but his growing assurance in office makes than unlikely.

One of the surprising features of the Government to date is that there has been far less tension between the three Coalition partners than many expected. All of the tension has been internal to each of them with at various times the leadership of Martin, Varadkar and Eamon Ryan being queried by some of their own followers.

At Cabinet the big battles have not broken down on party lines but have been on more traditional departmental rivalries. Paschal Donohoe at Finance and Michael McGrath in Public Expenditure tried to resist pressure from Martin, Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan for the massive increases in public spending over the coming years to which the Government ultimately signed up.

The fate of Coalition parties at the next election will depend on how well the extra resources, which will entail massive borrowing, are deployed, particularly in the area of housing. The last election was dominated by the Fine Gael-led government’s failure to deal adequately with the housing problem and the parties in power are determined that it will not happen again.

It is a political truism, though, that parties frequently make the mistake of fighting elections on the issues that dominated the previous one only to find that the public has moved on. Housing is unlikely to become irrelevant as an issue by the time the next election comes around but a determined and coherent effort to tackle it might make it less toxic for the parties in power.