Stephen Collins: Government should weather political storms of 32nd Dáil

The past week saw conflicting signals about the minority Government’s survival prospects. But, despite the hiccups, there is a growing sense that it can last for a reasonable length of time.

The deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is looking solid, though there are still a number of sceptics in both parties who remain doubtful about the experiment in new politics.

The more immediate threat of instability relates to the ability of the Independents who have signed up for the Fine Gael- led minority administration to withstand the pressure when the going gets tough.

The announcement on Monday by Minister of State John Halligan that he might vote for a Sinn Féin Dáil motion to abolish water charges appeared to confirm the worst fears of those who have written off the Government from day one.

Halligan quickly came to his senses after a meeting with Simon Coveney to clarify the agreement on water between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The bottom line that he could not continue to serve as a junior minister if he voted against the Government was most likely the decisive factor in his rapid volte-face.

The worrying aspect of the incident was that it indicated a number of Independents had no idea of what they were letting themselves in for when they agreed to back Enda Kenny for Taoiseach.

A separate intervention from Clare TD John Harty, who insisted that he had not signed up to unconditional support for the Government, added further fuel to the notion that the Independents could buckle at any moment.

However, when the matter was put to the test in a series of Dáil divisions on the water issue on Wednesday night, the Government came through with plenty of room to spare, winning the first key division by 12 votes and the subsequent ones by a healthy 21 votes.

No automatic block

The votes on the Sinn Féin motion, and the amendments made to it, demonstrated that the array of Opposition forces in the Dáil will not automatically come together as a block to vote against the Government.

A vote on the order of business on Thursday morning reinforced the point. When left-wing Independent Clare Daly objected to an element of the Dáil reform agreement dealing with the status of small parties and groups, the Government carried the day by a massive 103 votes to 15.

The non-Government Independents were supported only by the Social Democrats and the Greens. Sinn Féin abstained and Fianna Fáil and Labour voted with the Government.

The various divisions demonstrated that as long as Fianna Fáil honours its commitment to abstain on confidence issues, the Government should be able to weather the inevitable storms.

One of the key factors binding a number of Independents to the Government is the fact that all of those who voted for Kenny for Taoiseach have received ministerial jobs (with the exception of Harty). It makes a mockery of the notion that Independents are somehow morally superior to party politicians, but it does give them an enormous stake in the Government’s survival for as long as possible.

Fine Gael has signalled a willingness to ensure Harty’s continued support by installing the GP as the chair of the Health Committee – if that proves feasible under the D’Hondt mechanism, which will be used for the allocation of committee chairs.

Former Fine Gael taoiseach Liam Cosgrave was fond of quoting Boss Croker’s definition of an honest politician as one who once bought stays bought. If the Independents stick with that maxim, the minority Government could confound predictions about its limited life expectancy.

FG jobs

It is not just Independents who have done well in the jobs share-out. Despite losing more than 20 seats in the election, Fine Gael has more positions in this Government than in the last one: 27 out of the 50 members of the parliamentary party now hold senior or junior ministerial rank.

With another eight likely to be appointed to influential, and paid, positions as committee chairs, the minority Government will have delivered jobs for the boys on an unprecedented scale.

It also means that, regardless of how long the current Dáil lasts, a large cadre of Fine Gael TDs will have acquired government experience, which should be of long-term benefit to them and the party.

It is hardly surprising that some Fianna Fáil TDs find it galling to witness Fine Gael getting its hands on all the perks of office while they settle down to another stint in opposition.

However, those with an eye on the longer term can appreciate that they stand to benefit in equal measure if and when the boot is on the other foot.

On the Fine Gael side, there is some angst at being at the mercy of the old enemy. There have been mutterings about the pointlessness of having office without power, but these sentiments are usually uttered by those who were overlooked for ministerial office.

Whatever the reservations, both sides have a vested interest in making the current arrangements work. For instance, Fianna Fáil’s frontbench spokesmen have been surprised to receive phone calls from their Fine Gael ministerial opposites offering briefings on major issues.

The 32nd Dáil will be unlike any other one in the history of Irish independence. Only time will tell whether the experiment in new politics can deliver a more dynamic Dáil without compromising the ability of the Government to govern. But the inconclusive election result meant that something fundamental had to change.