Some comfort for Fianna Fáil

A RETURN of the Dáil, the introduction of the National Asset Management Agency legislation and mobilisation of the Fianna Fáil…

A RETURN of the Dáil, the introduction of the National Asset Management Agency legislation and mobilisation of the Fianna Fáil organisation for the Lisbon referendum have raised the level of support for the party and the Government by three points over the last three weeks. At the same time, Taoiseach Brian Cowen has experienced a strong recovery in his satisfaction ratings following a number of public appearances. But while the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll offers some comfort to Fianna Fáil, the improvements should be seen in the context of historically bad figures.

Passage of the Lisbon referendum may serve as a basis for further recovery and a renewal of political confidence. It is clear the public is desperately seeking reassurance that the Coalition Government has a plan to deal with the recession and to provide opportunities for future economic growth. In that regard, the most significant increase in support for Fianna Fáil has come from the wealthiest section of society, which has a direct interest in the Nama project. Even allowing for a three-point improvement in its satisfaction rating, however, 81 per cent of voters remain disillusioned with the Government. Given such a bleak assessment of its performance by the broad electorate, it is of considerable interest that three-quarters of Green Party supporters wish to remain in Government. That finding will bolster the confidence of party leader John Gormley in advance of a special convention to consider its future in Government on October 10th. While a clear majority of voters would like to see the Coalition Government break up at this time, more than one-quarter of Fine Gael and Labour Party supporters would prefer it to continue. Such uncertainty may reflect worry about the economic situation and a lack of clarity concerning the policies and intentions of the main Opposition parties.

Fine Gael still commands the high political ground, with 31 per cent support. That reflects a fall of three points since earlier this month, on adjusted figures. The Labour Party continues to make slow but steady progress and, on 25 per cent, is comfortably ahead of Fianna Fáil. In Dublin, Labour leads both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil but the party is failing to connect with low-income families. Sinn Féin has put in a solid performance at 9 per cent, but has failed to make the breakthrough it desires. Elsewhere, support for the Green Party improved marginally.

Increased political activity following a return of the Dáil and campaigning in the Lisbon referendum has impacted positively on the public’s perception of most party leaders, with Mr Cowen benefiting to the greatest extent with an eight-point rise in his approval rating. Enda Kenny and Mr Gormley enjoyed a three-point improvement, while Eamon Gilmore experienced a slight drop in his satisfaction rating. Overall, however, Mr Gilmore continues to enjoy a commanding lead over his competitors. The findings of this survey suggest an uncertain electorate that is looking for clear direction and firm leadership.