ANALYSIS:Sinn Féins focus once more is on making gains in the South, as the political tectonic plates in the Republic shift, writes MARK HENNESSY
FOR YEARS, Sinn Féin has been dominated by its northern wing, and lacking a sure touch when it came to capturing seats in the Republic.
In 2002, it did well in the Dáil elections, and believed it could do better again, riding off the back of political progress in Stormont.
That strategy has failed due to lack of interest on the part of voters in the Republic, and now the party has accepted the need for a stronger southern brand.
Step forward Dublin MEP Mary Lou McDonald, who was given the best speaking slots during the ardfheis weekend, and the best lines. “The politics of me féin has failed. Now it is time for the politics of Sinn Féin,” she told delegates during the keynote speech on Friday night.
She mentioned Northern Ireland only at the back end of her speech, and then it was about the effects of cross-Border shopping and the economic effects of the Border.
However, some work remains to be done on the packaging and, indeed, on the party’s economic policies, which still lack teeth.
Though equipped with a well-written speech both then and again on Saturday, McDonald only rarely moved delegates into sustained applause.
With both the Government and the economy in trouble and 100,000 workers taking to the streets, Sinn Féin knows it must capitalise now.
However, such numbers have appeared before on Irish streets: during the tax marches of the 1980s and over the Iraq war.
The old political map did not collapse then but there is some evidence that what is happening now is of a different order of magnitude.
Gerry Adams clearly believes that an opportunity to topple the old order exists if Sinn Féin can develop links with the Labour Party, the Greens, trade unions and a plethora of community organisations around the country.
Fianna Fáil’s replacement by Fine Gael “would be like replacing Tweedledum with Tweedledee”, he said, as he urged Labour not to prop up either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael and to explore instead “the potential for co-operation in the future”.
Siptu leader Jack O’Connor was also lauded as he – the only senior union leader to so do – arrived fresh from the Dublin city centre protests against the pension levy and the recession.
Sinn Féin faces challenges. McDonald will face a battle royal to hold on in Dublin where the European Parliament seat numbers are falling from four to three.
However, a victory cannot be ruled out. Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell should be safe. So too should Labour’s Proinsias De Rosa if he benefits from the party’s current poll “bounce”.
Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan, though, has reason to be worried as his party’s support in the capital haemorrhages. But stranger things have happened.
However, the European Parliament is not where McDonald needs to be if she is to become the de facto Sinn Féin leader in the Republic.
A decision on the Dublin Central byelection has yet to be made, but it could coincide with the European elections, leaving her with no seat of any kind if she loses in June.
However, she is open to attack, too, if the byelection is held later, since she will be portrayed in the European elections as one who intends to keep a Brussels seat warm only until a Dáil place appears.
In the coming weeks, Sinn Féin is to produce a series of documents outlining its economic policies, following months of work behind the scenes.
It had been highlighted in advance that leading figures would begin to put some flesh on the bones of the policies to come over the ardfheis weekend.
However, the details that came were patchy and failed to convince, and certainly failed to differentiate the party from the clutter of noise amongst the Opposition.
It is certainly the case that Sinn Féin was calling for higher taxation rates when no-one else was and this is something that will now have to happen.
Equally, it is true that the party railed against the open season enjoyed for years by property developers before others did.
But it is not clear if Irish voters are ready to accept the view that the State “should be the employer of last resort, and the consumer of last resort”, as one delegate said.
However, many economic and political totems have fallen by the wayside and many more will go in the months ahead as the recession bites.
Sinn Féin has its best ever chance of making gains if it can capture the spirit of the times in the Republic. It may be its only one.